637
AXPZ20 KNHC 141539
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: A Central American Gyre
(CAG) is rapidly developing. Heavy rainfall is already occurring.
The persistent moist onshore flow over portions of Guatemala,
Chiapas, Honduras, and El Salvador will favor days of
intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation through the weekend.
Excessive rainfall is also expected over Costa Rica and Panama
today through Sunday, producing 8-12 inches of rain across these
areas. This rainfall event will cause very hazardous conditions
to the region. This scenario is common during the developing of
La Nina. Please refer to your local meteorological office
bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 17N107W to 08N122W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N122W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N
and E of 107W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high pressure is centered well NE of the area near
37N142W and extends a ridge SE across the Baja California
offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this high and
lower pressure over Mexico is causing moderate to fresh winds
across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San
Lazaro. South of Cabo San Lazaro, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within NW swell across the region.
In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, with
locally fresh winds likely occurring in the northern Gulf. Seas
range 2 to 4 ft. Gentle winds prevail over the SW Mexico offshore
waters with seas 4 to 5 ft within SW swell. Across the southern
Mexico offshore waters, the monsoon trough has lifted north
around 16N, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds. Seas are 6
to 8 ft. Thunderstorms are also occurring in this area, which are
capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Across
most of the Mexico offshore waters, smoke from agricultural fires
may be restricting visibility somewhat over area waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist
across the Baja California offshore waters through early next
week. NW swell will also move across the Baja California Norte
offshore waters, with seas building 8 to 11 ft through the
weekend and into early next week north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas
are expected to peak north of Punta Eugenia on Mon. Meanwhile, a
broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some slow development is possible this
weekend and early next week while the system moves slowly ESE and
interacts with a broader circulation that is forecast to develop
offshore of southern Mexico and Central America. This system has
a low chance of formation over the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central
American Gyre.

With the monsoon trough displaced farther north than usual, this
is bringing moderate to fresh winds across the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Some areas are experiencing strong
to near gale-force winds where the stronger thunderstorms are
located. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in S to SW swell. In the Ecuador and
Galapagos Island offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate
with 4 to 5 ft seas within SW swell.

For the forecast, an increase in winds, rough seas and
widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the area this
weekend. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles SW of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some slow development is possible this
weekend and early next week while the system moves slowly ESE and
interacts with a broader circulation that is forecast to develop
offshore of southern Mexico and Central America. This system has
a low chance of formation in the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is expected to impact Central America
through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will shift to the
Gulf of Panama tonight into Sat with rough seas. By Sun, these
conditions are expected to develop across the offshore waters
from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Meanwhile, seas are expected to
build to 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure near 37N142W. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across waters W of 110W. Seas are 5 to
8 ft. To the east of 110W, moderate to locally fresh winds are
noted from the monsoon trough around 15N to 05N. Seas are 8 to 10
ft near the stronger winds. Elsewhere, seas range 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are
likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next
week. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft by Sun night into Mon. SW
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to be fresh today
between 90W and 110W, supporting seas of 7 to 10 ft. Similar
winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of the
weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near the
monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through the next couple of
days. Seas to 8 ft will hover around 03S near the Galapagos
Islands through the weekend.

$$
ERA