866
AXPZ20 KNHC 132031
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre (CAG) is rapidly developing. Heavy
rainfall is already occurring, and the main event is not at its
peak yet. The persistent moist onshore flow over portions of
Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras, and El Salvador will favor days of
intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation. Excessive rainfall is
also expected over Costa Rica and Panama, from Friday through the
weekend, producing 8-12 inches of rain across these areas. This
scenario is common during the developing of La Nina. Please refer
to your local meteorological office bulletins for more detailed
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern portion of the tropical
eastern Pacific, with axis along 82W from Panama to near 02N,
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted N of 04N and E of 86W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N93W to 08N126W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N126W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 05N to 17N between 86W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge
southeastward to just W of the Revillagigedo Islands. This
pattern supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja
offshore waters. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. A
surface trough extends across the eastern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Moderate winds are in the central and
southern Gulf of California, with light and variable winds in the
northern Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of
California, except to 4 ft near the entrance. Gentle winds
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for
S of 14N, where the monsoon trough has lift N to. S of the
trough, moderate to fresh SW winds prevail. Seas through the
waters S of Baja California are 4 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW
swell. Thunderstorms persist across the waters south of 17N and
east of 110W. North of 15N away from any convection and
extending to offshore Jalisco, smoke from agricultural fires may
be restricting visibility somewhat over area waters.

For the forecast, troughing will extend from the Gulf of
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands with broad ridging
northwest of there. A relatively tight pressure gradient will
yield an increase in winds on both sides of the troughing into
the weekend. NW swell will impact waters offshore Baja California
this weekend into early next week, leading to seas of 8 to 12 ft
north of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun. A broad area of low pressure
has formed a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Some additional slow development is possible this weekend and
early next week while the system moves slowly east-
southeastwards.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central
American Gyre.

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
position for this time of year, and currently extends along the
coast of Guatemala then across El Salvador. Moderate southerly
winds prevail across area waters. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in
SW swell, except 3 to 5 ft inside the Gulf of Panama and in the
lee of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and numerous
thunderstorms will dominate the region through the end of the
week. A broad area of low pressure has formed a few hundred
miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Some additional slow
development is possible this weekend and early next week while
the system moves slowly east-southeastwards. This will allow for
the monsoon trough to lift even farther northward toward the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 90W increasing to
fresh to strong, leading to building seas of 8 to 12 ft at
times, highest late weekend into early next week. Meanwhile,
fresh to strong SW winds are expected to develop west of Colombia
Fri and shift into the Gulf of Panama Fri night and Sat before
diminishing. Seas are likely build to around 8 ft there with
these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 30N119W to 28N121W with moderate
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft to the W of it. Otherwise, broad
ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ, with mainly gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell
west of 115W. To the east of 115W, fresh winds are south of the
monsoon trough north of 03N, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in S to SW swell are
elsewhere east of 115W.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are
likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next
week, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft by the end of the
weekend. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to be
fresh today between 90W and 110W, supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft.
Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of
the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near
the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through the next
couple of days.

$$
ERA