135
AXPZ20 KNHC 140321
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: A Central American Gyre
(CAG) is rapidly developing. Heavy rainfall is already occurring.
The persistent moist onshore flow over portions of Guatemala,
Chiapas, Honduras, and El Salvador will favor days of
intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation. Excessive rainfall is
also expected over Costa Rica and Panama, from Friday through
the weekend, producing 8-12 inches of rain across these areas.
This scenario is common during the developing of La Nina. Please
refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more
detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern portion of the tropical
eastern Pacific, with axis along 83W from Panama to near 03N,
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted N of 05N and E of 86W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 16N95W to 15N104W to
07N120W. The ITCZ extends from 07N120W to 10N130W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 17N between 78W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of the eastern Pacific extends a
ridge southeastward just W of the Revillagigedo Islands. This
pattern supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja
offshore waters. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. A
surface trough extends across the eastern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Moderate winds are in the northern and
southern Gulf of California, with light and variable winds in the
central Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of
California, except to 4 ft near the entrance. Gentle winds
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters N of 15N.
Seas in this area range 4 to 6 ft within mixed swell. The
monsoon trough has lifted north around 15N, which is bringing
moderate to fresh SW winds to portions of the southern Mexico
offshore waters. Seas have increased to 6 to 8 ft in these winds
within S to SW swell. Thunderstorms persist across the waters
south of 17N and east of 104W. Across most of the Mexico offshore
waters, smoke from agricultural fires may be restricting
visibility somewhat over area waters.

For the forecast, a relatively tight pressure gradient between
troughing over Mexico and ridging NW of the area will bring an
increase in winds off the Baja California coast into the
weekend. NW swell will impact waters offshore Baja California
this weekend into early next week, leading to seas of 8 to 12 ft
north of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun into Mon. A broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development is possible this weekend and early next week
while the system moves slowly ESE. This system has a low chance
of formation over the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central
American Gyre.

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
position for this time of year, extending along the coast of
Guatemala then across El Salvador. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds prevail across the Central American and Colombia offshore
waters. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in SW swell in this area. In
the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters, winds are
gentle to moderate with 4 to 6 ft seas within SW swell.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and numerous
thunderstorms will dominate the region through the weekend. A
broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible this weekend and
early next week while the system moves slowly ESE. This system
has a low chance of formation in the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, this will allow for the monsoon trough to remain
well north of the area. Winds west of 90W increasing to fresh to
strong, leading to building seas of 8 to 12 ft at times, later
this weekend into early next week. Heavy rainfall will also
impact portions of Central America through the weekend.
Meanwhile, fresh to strong SW winds are expected to develop west
of Colombia Fri and shift into the Gulf of Panama Fri night and
Sat before diminishing. Seas are likely build to around 8 ft
there with these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in
mixed swell west of 115W. To the east of 115W, moderate to
locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough north of
04N, along with seas to 8 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas in S to SW swell are elsewhere east of 115W.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are
likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next
week, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft by the end of the
weekend. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to be
fresh today between 90W and 110W, supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft.
Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of
the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near
the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through the next
couple of days.

$$
AReinhart