132
AXPZ20 KNHC 230406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.9N 98.6W at
23/0300 UTC, or about 140 nm south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.
It is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak
seas are possibly up to 10 ft. Satellite imagery shows increased
very cold cloud tops over the center of the depression and
increased banding features coiling around the center of the
system. The very deep convection consists of the numerous strong
type intensity within 60 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 13N between 96W
and 101W. The coldest cloud top temperatures are in the range of
-75 to -83 degree Celsius. The depression is forecast to acquire
a slow northeastward motion is expected later tonight and on Mon.
A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on
Tue and on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the
next couple of days. Strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and the system will likely become a tropical
storm tonight or early on Mon. The depression is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15
inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and
near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20
inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be
expected through Thu. Swells associated with the depression are
forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico on Mon,
with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Ten-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A Central American Gyre is forecast to continue to gradually
develop through the middle of the upcoming week. This scenario,
combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting, is expected
to generate periods of excessive rainfall over southern Mexico
and Central America, as well as the adjacent western Caribbean
and eastern Pacific waters between 80W and 95W. This activity
could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the
area. Furthermore, strong to near gale force winds, rough seas
and thunderstorms  are forecast to affect the offshore waters
between Costa Rica and El Salvador from Mon night through the end
of the week. Please follow the forecasts from your local weather
offices for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward
to northern Costa Rica, and to 11N86W to Tropical Depression
Ten-E, to 16N107W to low pressure of 1007 mb near 16N110W to
11N124W to 12N134W and to beyond 12N140W. Aside convection
related to Tropical Depression Ten-E, numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 120 nm south of trough west of 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on both Tropical Depression Ten-E and on the
developing Central American Gyre (CAG).

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to just west of the
Baja California offshore waters. The related gradient is allowing
for generally gentle to moderate northwest winds to exist over
the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate seas are N of
Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf
of California with slight seas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Ten-E, with seas to 9 ft.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Ten-E is forecast to
strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.3N 98.3W Mon morning with
maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then gradually
strengthen as it moves to near 14.6N 97.9W Mon evening, to near
15.0N 97.1W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts
60 kt, to near 15.2N 96.3W Tue evening, to near 15.6N 95.2W Wed
morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt and inland
to near 16.3N 94.1W Wed evening. Tropical Storm Ten-E is then
forecast to dissipate late Thu. Otherwise, high pressure will
remain in place through the next few mid-week. Gentle to moderate
northwest winds will continue over the Baja California offshore
waters through Wed night. Light to gentle winds will continue
over the Gulf of California through the period, with occasional
instances of gentle to moderate winds in the central section.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are south of the
monsoon trough and across the offshore waters from Colombia to
Costa Rica along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and
tstms are over the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa
Rica due to an active monsoon trough. Strong winds and rough seas
are likely in the regions of strongest convection.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west winds
south of the monsoon trough will change little through Mon, then
increase to fresh to near gale force speeds across the offshore
waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala late Mon through Wed night.
Seas will build during this time in mixed swell. The monsoonal
flow is expected to become very active, and dominate the region
through next week. This pattern will generate increasing westerly
wind waves moving into the area waters. Periods of very active
weather are also expected across the Central America offshore
waters through at least mid week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is generally present north of about 15N and west of
115W. The gradient between the high pressure and a 1008 mb low
just west of the area near 12N142W is supporting fresh winds and
seas to 8 ft in decaying south swell from about 11N to 14N and
west of 139W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
north of 15N per latest ASCAT satellite data passes over that
part of the area. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas
of 8 to 9 ft prevails near the monsoon trough from 08N to 15N
between 98W and 105W. Gentle to moderate trade winds along with
moderate seas are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, southwest monsoonal winds will continue to
become well established through early next week as the monsoon
trough lifts slowly northward. Looking ahead, a trough of low
pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the middle part of the week while the system moves
slowly eastward or northeastward.

$$
Aguirre