819
AXPZ20 KNHC 060307
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 113W, south of 15N, and moving westward
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
08N to 11N and between 106W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near
13N87W to 14N102W to 10N122W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N122W to
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is found from 03N to 13N and east of 100W. Scattered moderate
convection from 07N to 13N and west of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system extends southeastward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in Mexico result in
moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja
California, mainly south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these waters
are 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are present in
the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate to occasionally fresh W-NW winds and
moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions persist off southern
Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural
fires over southern Mexico and Central America, reducing
visibility to around 5 nm at times.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds will
continue off Baja California Sur through this weekend, while
winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse between fresh and strong
during the nighttime and early morning hours through Fri morning.
A new swell event will propagate across the offshore of Baja
California Thu and Fri building seas to 8-9 ft N of Punta
Eugenia on Thu, and to 6-8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta
Eugenia on Fri. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will continue offshore of central and southern
Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to near 5
nm at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough is located a few degrees north of its normal
climatological position for this time of the year. This results
in moderate to occasionally fresh SW-W winds in the offshore
waters of Central America and Colombia, especially north of the
equator. The southerly swell produces seas of 5-7 ft across the
area described. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are
evident in the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the equator.

Hazy conditions persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala
due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
Central America.

For the forecast, abundant moisture in a SW wind flow will persist
across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters through
at least Fri. This will support the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Light to gentle winds will
prevail north of 10N, while moderate to locally fresh winds are
expected south of 10N for the next several days. Meanwhile, hazy
conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico
and Central America may reduce visibilities mainly over the
northern Central American offshore waters for the next couple of
days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered near the far NW waters
continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern
Pacific. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures associated with a 1011 mb low pressure near 30N121W and
surface trough extending from the center to 24N123W support
moderate to fresh northerly winds north of 23N and west of 122W.
Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.

Farther south, moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of
6-8 ft are occurring from the ITCZ to 23N and west of 130W.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are
noted south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while
weakening somewhat over the next couple of days. Large NW swell
will continue to propagate across the north waters with seas to 10
ft N of 24N between 118W and 135W. Seas will subside below 8 ft
early Sat. Seas to 8 ft will continue across the eastern and
expand into the central waters near the monsoon trough into the
weekend.


$$
Delgado