637
FXUS64 KEPZ 211931
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
131 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Lingering moisture will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will become
hotter once again as high pressure moves into the region and will
increase to the 100s. Winds will become light and variable once
the high pressure moves in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Currently, ridging is present over the southern US. The resultant
High pressure is allowing moisture advection from the Gulf of
Mexico to enter the region. PWATs are at record levels between 1.6
to 1.7 in. Dewpoints are very high in the 60s. Instability is
minuscule today due to Low MLCAPE of 200 to 300 J/kg, a cap, and
some negative vorticity advection (NVA). Therefore, stratiform
type rain is what is expected for the rest of the day. Orographic
lifting could allow for some heavier rain in higher elevations.
Burn scar regions will be susceptible for flash flooding.
Extensive cloud cover is present which means high temperatures
will only be in the upper 80s today. Winds are mainly from the
southeast and are between 10 - 15mph.

Into the weekend, the ridge will travel westward and will settle
over the region on Sunday. This ridge will remain in this position
for the whole forecast period. This ridging will cause
temperatures to increase the 100s in the lowlands due to warm air
advection (WAA) from more southernly winds at 700mb. These hot
temperatures will perpetuate throughout next week. Surface winds
will become light and variable at around 5 mph and will remain
that way through next week.

The Gulf moisture from before will become trapped in the region,
so chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain as the region
transitions into a monsoon-like pattern. The center of the
moisture will be in the western region and into AZ. PWATs will be
elevated all week at 1.0 to 1.5 inches. Dewpoints will be in the
50s to 60s across the region. MLCAPE will improve next week,
ranging from 500 to 1000 J/kg. Some areas of positive vorticity
advection (PVA) will also be present. However, wind shear will be
very low, so severe storm chances will be lower. Nevertheless,
the aforementioned instability will allow heavy rain producing
thunderstorms to form. Cold pooling from some of these storms will
generate lift for even more scattered thunderstorms around the
CWA. Higher elevations will have an even greater chance for
thunderstorms. Flash flooding will be possible, especially in
higher elevations where burn scars are located.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Southeasterly breezes at most TAF sites will become 12-18G25KT
between 19Z and 00Z. Rain showers continue this afternoon.
Thunder is possible but confidence is not high enough to mention
in TAF. Ceilings will run 3500 to 4000 feet with rain showers,
otherwise ceilings will fluctuate between 5000 and 10000 feet.
Therefore should remain VFR, however could become MVFR near storms
later today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Low fire weather concerns for today and into the weekend.
High pressure that is present in the southern US will move
westward and will set up over the region on Sunday. This will
cause high temperatures to become hotter over the weekend and will
reach the 100s for the lowlands. Wind speeds will be southeasterly
and breezy today at 10-15 mph and light and variable over the
weekend and into next week at around 5 mph.

The high pressure will trap moisture in the region, keeping fire
weather concerns low for next week. Min RH values will be between
15-20% for the lowlands and 25-35% for higher elevations.
Dewpoints will range from the 50s and 60s for the week.  Showers
and thunderstorms are possible over the weekend, especially at
higher elevations. Flash flooding could occur with heavier rain.
Ventilation rates will range from good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77  99  77 102 /  20  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            64  91  67  95 /  10  10   0  10
Las Cruces               71  96  72 100 /  30  10  10  10
Alamogordo               67  93  68  97 /  20  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               49  70  52  72 /  30  40  10  30
Truth or Consequences    70  93  73  96 /  60  30  30  30
Silver City              66  87  67  91 /  60  50  40  40
Deming                   69  96  69 100 /  60  20  20  20
Lordsburg                72  95  70  99 /  60  40  30  40
West El Paso Metro       74  96  75  99 /  20  10  10  10
Dell City                67  95  68  99 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             68  97  69 102 /  10  10   0  10
Loma Linda               66  90  69  93 /  10  10   0  10
Fabens                   72  98  73 102 /  10  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             70  95  69  99 /  20  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           74  93  77  98 /  30  10  10  10
Jornada Range            67  95  68  98 /  40  20  10  20
Hatch                    69  96  69 100 /  40  20  20  20
Columbus                 73  96  72  99 /  50  10  10  10
Orogrande                69  94  70  97 /  20  10  10  10
Mayhill                  53  82  56  83 /  40  40  10  30
Mescalero                53  80  56  83 /  30  40  20  30
Timberon                 50  79  54  82 /  20  20  10  20
Winston                  58  83  59  86 /  50  60  40  60
Hillsboro                67  90  69  93 /  50  40  30  40
Spaceport                65  93  66  96 /  50  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             62  86  63  89 /  60  60  40  50
Hurley                   64  91  65  93 /  60  40  30  30
Cliff                    65  95  65 100 /  60  60  40  50
Mule Creek               68  89  69  93 /  60  70  40  60
Faywood                  66  89  67  93 /  60  30  30  30
Animas                   71  95  68  99 /  70  40  30  40
Hachita                  69  94  67  98 /  80  30  20  30
Antelope Wells           68  94  68  98 /  70  30  30  40
Cloverdale               68  90  68  92 /  80  40  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...27-Ribail/Laney