236
FXUS64 KEPZ 161143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
543 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Moisture persisting over the area today will result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms, starting out west this afternoon and
spreading east through the night. Some thunderstorms are possible
again Tuesday, mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley. Drier
southwest flow aloft will push the moisture to our east, giving us
mostly clear skies Wednesday into the weekend, with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Left over sub-tropical moisture is now mostly over New Mexico,
drifting slightly east from Arizona Sunday. Strong early season
Pacific upper low is now over central California. Broad southwest
flow around this low now over the CWA will continue to slowly push
this moisture east today and Tuesday. For today expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms west of the Rio Grande Valley late this
morning and afternoon, spreading to east of the valley tonight.
PWs are well above normal indicating some flood potential, but
storm motion looks to be at 20 mph today, so believe this will
limit any flooding. DCAPE values and dewpoint depressions suggest
wind gusts of 30-40 mph to be main threat with storms. Upper low
travels across the Great Basin overnight tonight and over the
northern Rockies Tuesday. This will allow the main trough to sweep
across New Mexico Tuesday, eventually flushing moisture east out
of the area. In the process though, isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms again on Tuesday, though mostly from the Rio
Grande Valley east.

Wednesday through Friday...should be mostly dry as dry southwest
flow continues as next Pacific upper low cuts across the southern
Great Basin toward the Four Corners later portion of Friday. At
the surface, the dry air will strengthen the dry-line just east of
the CWA. As is usually the case, this line will undulate slightly
east and west, but probably stay east of the CWA. GFS alone does
move the line back into the eastern CWA Friday. Did bring low POPs
back into the eastern CWA but will have to watch this area daily
through this period.

Saturday and Sunday...upper low continues across southern Colorado
with strong trough forcing the dry-line further east well out of
our area. Temperatures down to near seasonable levels. GFS again
the outlier in sweeping the dry-line west over much of the CWA on
Sunday, suggesting chances of rain returning. For now went with
the ECMWF solution of the dry-line remaining east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

West of the Rio Grande Valley...SCT100 BKN250. Developing after
17Z...scattered BKN/OVC060CB 5SM -SHRA/-TSRA. Rio Grande Valley
east...SCT250. Thunderstorms from the west spreading to area after
23Z. Wind gusts to 35 knots possible with some of these storms.
Otherwise non-thunderstorm winds southeast 7-10 knots this morning
becoming south/southwest 8-12 knots this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

More showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday as the last of
the sub-tropical moisture lingers around. Drying out Wednesday
into the weekend, though brief moisture return on Friday could
produce an isolated thunderstorm over Otero and Hudspeth Counties.
Temperatures well above normal through Thursday, then dropping
down to more seasonable levels over the weekend.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% today and Tuesday, decreasing to 12-18%
Wednesday through Saturday. Mountains 35-50% today and Tuesday,
decreasing to 20-30% Wednesday through Saturday. Vent rates very
good-excellent through Thursday, then fair-good Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  72  94  70 /  10  30  20  10
Sierra Blanca            91  65  89  65 /   0  20  20  10
Las Cruces               92  67  91  63 /  20  30  10   0
Alamogordo               90  65  90  62 /  20  30  30   0
Cloudcroft               70  47  68  46 /  20  30  40  10
Truth or Consequences    89  67  88  60 /  20  20  20   0
Silver City              83  62  80  54 /  40  30  20   0
Deming                   89  66  91  59 /  30  30  20   0
Lordsburg                83  65  87  59 /  40  30  10   0
West El Paso Metro       93  72  91  68 /  10  30  20  10
Dell City                94  64  93  65 /  10  20  20  10
Fort Hancock             96  66  94  66 /  10  20  20  10
Loma Linda               88  67  86  63 /  10  20  20  10
Fabens                   95  67  93  67 /  10  20  20  10
Santa Teresa             92  69  90  65 /  20  30  10   0
White Sands HQ           92  68  90  67 /  10  30  20   0
Jornada Range            92  66  89  60 /  20  30  20   0
Hatch                    94  66  91  59 /  20  30  20   0
Columbus                 89  69  91  63 /  30  30  10   0
Orogrande                91  69  89  62 /  10  30  20  10
Mayhill                  83  52  80  53 /  20  20  40  10
Mescalero                85  51  79  51 /  20  30  40  10
Timberon                 81  50  77  51 /  20  20  40  10
Winston                  81  54  82  47 /  30  20  20   0
Hillsboro                86  65  87  55 /  30  30  20   0
Spaceport                89  64  88  57 /  20  30  20   0
Lake Roberts             82  52  79  49 /  60  30  30   0
Hurley                   85  61  84  54 /  40  30  20   0
Cliff                    84  57  84  54 /  50  30  20   0
Mule Creek               82  54  79  49 /  40  30  20   0
Faywood                  86  62  83  56 /  40  30  20   0
Animas                   85  67  88  58 /  40  30  10   0
Hachita                  89  66  87  58 /  30  30  10   0
Antelope Wells           85  65  88  57 /  30  20  10   0
Cloverdale               80  62  82  55 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner