351
FXUS64 KEPZ 241705
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1105 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

We have started a stretch of warm and dry weather. High
temperature today through the weekend will be above average, with
high temperatures Friday, Saturday and Sunday near record high
values. We will see little chance for rain over the next seven
days. Summer is still trying to hold on a little longer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Not much to say about the forecast. While the eyes of the weather
world will be on Florida later this week, we will sit under a
strong area of upper level high pressure. The upper level ridge
begins to build into the region today and will continue over the
area through (at least) the start of next week. High temperature
today through Thursday will run 3 to 5 degrees above average. Then
as the ridge persists and gets a little stronger we will see high
temperatures for Friday and into the weekend running 7 to 10.
These highs will be near record highs for many places Friday
through Sunday. The latest El Paso has ever recorded a high
temperature of 100 degrees is September 16th, but we will be close
to the triple digit mark each day, Friday through Sunday. Right
now probabilistic forecasts show a slight chance (10 to 20%) that
El Paso will hit 100 each of those days. The upper level ridge
will keep our winds light and our skies mostly clear today through
Sunday. Right now it looks like Summer will be extending itself
into the start of October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

P6SM SKC-FEW100 through period.  An isolated storm is possible
over far southern Hudspeth county this afternoon, but that will be
it. Winds generally southeast to northeast 5-15KTS, strongest near
the AZ border after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Little fire weather concerns this week with little chance for
thunderstorms and our surface winds will stay generally light each
day. The only concern will be min RH`s. Min RH`s the next couple
of days will range from the mid to upper teens in the lowlands to
the 20`s in area mountains. But by the end of the week into next
weekend we will see lowland min RH`s near 10%, and min RH`s in
area mountains ranging from 15 to 25%. Ventilation rates will
range from fair to good over the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  61  83  62 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  58  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  42  67  43 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              83  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   91  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                90  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                90  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             92  60  91  61 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               83  59  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   91  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             88  63  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           88  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            88  52  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  58  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 90  63  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                87  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  78  46  76  47 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                78  45  79  46 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 75  45  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  81  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  54  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             83  42  83  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    92  53  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               86  47  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  85  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   90  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  88  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  58  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               86  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz