438
FXUS64 KEPZ 161933
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
133 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday for most of
the area. Cooler and wetter conditions will start to move into the
area Thursday though the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The upper level ridge building into the area will create very hot
conditions over the area. El Paso is currently 4-5 degrees higher
then yesterday already so the 75th percentile from NBM was
utilized and has a high of 108F. Temperatures will push the local
records today with El Paso`s record for the 16th of 108F in 1980.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Winds will increase
this afternoon out of the SW to W with gusts up to near 20kts.
Winds will decrease after sunset with no impacts expected. A weak
shortwave trough will push through aloft and weaken the ridge
slightly, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures, but
only a few degrees. This keeps El Paso and the lower valley at or
near heat advisory criteria. 500mb heights fall on Tuesday as the
long wave trough deepens into the western CONUS. This will drop
our temperatures below heat advisory criteria, but still 4-5
degrees above average. This lowering height trend will be short-
lived as a tropical wave enters southern Texas Wednesday. This
results in the ridge building over our area. Temperatures look to
jump back into heat advisory criteria for most of the lowlands on
Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon is when our pattern really begins to shift as
a surge of moisture in the low levels pushes into the area. This
may cause some storms over terrain east of the Rio Grande Valley,
which may impact the overall high temperature in El Paso depending
on timing. Overnight Wednesday the moisture really pushes into
the area from the remnants of the tropical wave going through TX.
Models do differ in the amount and timing of the moisture, so
there is still some uncertainty on how much makes its way into our
area.

Thursday into the weekend the area looks much cooler with
cloud coverage and isolated to scattered storms each day over the
terrain. The lowland rains will likely depend on how outflows play
out each day, but the chances are higher than they have been most
the summer. Some models have less convection and more stratiform
type precipitation moving through with the tropical wave on
Friday. The warm air advection in the upper levels may limit heavy
rains, but could promote more widespread light to moderate rains
with any convection being more upslope caused. PWAT values look to
move into the 1-1.5" range, with the GFS being the most bullish.
NBM 95th percentiles for 24 hour rainfall do indicate Friday the
high end for precipitation could be 0.25-0.5" for Thursdays
potential, 0.5-0.75" east of the Continental divide for Friday,
and 0.5-0.75" for Saturday. Overall if an area does get a few
rounds of precipitation they could reach 0.75-1" if the higher
end model members verify. This rain does look to be over a longer
period of rain so the flooding threat will overall be low, but
isolated areas in the urban areas could have some localized
flooding, especially Friday into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Extremely dry conditions will be observed over the area through
Tuesday with single digit RH values throughout much of the region.
Winds will remain relatively light with sustained 20ft winds below
20mph, but some gusts could get near 20mph in the afternoons.
Wednesday a surge of moisture pushes into the area and increases
RH over 20-30 percent for most of the region. Winds will increase
with this moisture surge with 30-40mph gusts possible over the
Gila Forest Thursday. Rain chances steadily increase after Friday
into the weekend where most the area will likely see some light
precipitation and a few areas may see moderate rainfall by
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 106  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            68 101  68  97 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               69 103  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67 102  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  79  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    69 101  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  91  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   64 102  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  99  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       73 102  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                65 104  65  99 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock             68 107  67 103 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               67  96  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   70 105  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             68 101  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75 101  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65 101  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    64 102  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70 102  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68 101  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  57  92  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                57  89  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 55  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  56  91  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                65  97  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                62  99  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             58  91  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   60  95  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    58 100  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               63  93  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  94  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   64  99  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  99  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           65  98  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  92  60  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...01-Barham