193
FXUS64 KEPZ 180827
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
227 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dry and warm conditions will be prevalent across the area through
the weekend. Slight rain chances are possible for the Sacramento
mountains and portions of Hudspeth County on Friday afternoon with
the remainder of the area remaining dry. Southwest to west winds
will become lightly breezy in the afternoon each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A steady west to southwest flow pattern aloft will maintain a
quiet weather pattern over the area for the next couple of days.
Temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas will
continue to run 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the afternoon with
middle 90s for most lowland locations. With greater heating in the
afternoon, there will be deeper mixing of the surface boundary
layer with stronger winds aloft for some afternoon breeziness each
day.

On Friday will a Pacific low pressure system will move into
northern Arizona, tightening the southwest flow between the low
and a ridge of high pressure over central Texas. This will cause
moisture south of the region to be pulled up over eastern portions
of the forecast area on Friday, setting up a potential for some
shower and thunderstorm development along a dry line expected to
straddle Otero and Hudspeth counties by Friday afternoon. The
Sacramento Mountains will have the best chance for measurable
rainfall and storms at about 30 percent with some isolated showers
and storms occurring across southern Otero and Hudspeth counties
from mid afternoon to the early evening. Rain amounts will be
spotty with a few locations getting moderate amounts of rain. For
the remainder of the region west of the dry line, dry and warm
conditions with afternoon breezes will continue.

Dry and warm conditions will persist through the weekend as a west
to southwest flow pattern pushes moisture back east of the area.
Latest model runs suggest moisture will again approach the area
from the south and east on Sunday, but will likely remain far
enough east to not impact the region.

The weather forecast for the first part of next week has become a
bit more unsettled and uncertain. Long range forecast models
differ widely and have poor run to run continuity about what will
occur next week. Overall they hint a the development of a deep
low pressure trough over the middle of the country that will
extend at least in part over the local area while at the same time
bringing moisture into the region, increasing rain chances. On
the flip side of that scenario the models sometimes also advertise
that local area will be under a high pressure ridge for continued
dry weather. Best low confidence forecast for next week is that
the local area will remain mostly dry with some uncertainty
regarding rain for areas mainly east of Rio Grande heading into
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Ceilings across
the area are unlimited with clear skies throughout the day. Light
winds this morning will increase to 10 15 knots from the
southwest with higher gusts in the afternoon. Winds will diminish
to light and variable after 02z this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dry and warm conditions will persist across most of the area
through the weekend. There is a slight chance of rain and
thunderstorms for portions of Otero and Hudspeth counties on
Friday, including the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will
be prevalent through into next week. Minimum RH values will be in
the lower teens in the lowlands with 20 percent range in the
mountains. The lowlands of South Central New Mexico will have
elevated fire conditions with southwesterly breezes in the
afternoon with daytime heating but wind speeds should stay below
critical values. Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent
in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  65  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               92  62  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               91  61  93  65 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               69  48  71  50 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    90  59  91  62 /   0   0  10  10
Silver City              82  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   91  58  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                88  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                95  63  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             96  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               86  65  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   94  66  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  63  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           91  68  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            90  60  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    92  58  94  62 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                 90  62  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  62  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  82  53  84  55 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                79  52  82  55 /   0   0  10  10
Timberon                 78  52  81  55 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  82  47  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                88  55  89  59 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                90  56  92  60 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   84  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    89  50  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               82  54  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  84  56  86  59 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   90  57  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  88  57  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           90  55  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               82  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen