459
FXUS64 KEPZ 242027
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
227 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Hot to very hot conditions are expected into the middle of the
week. Moisture levels increase for Wednesday and Thursday,
enhancing the threat for showers and thunderstorms, some of which
may produce flash flooding. A more typical monsoon set up returns
late in the week with scattered activity over the mountains and
isolated in the lowlands. Temperatures cool slightly after
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The monsoon is locked in as the elongated ridge sits over the
southern tier of the US. The bulk of the moisture remains to the
west in AZ, but enough is present to spark scattered showers and
storms over the higher terrain this afternoon. PWs are currently
1.0-1.2" which is above normal but not anomalously so. Flash
flooding is not a major concern, except over the recent burn scars
in the Sacs where debris flows are possible from lesser rain
totals. The ridge strengthens and consolidates over NM on Tuesday,
resulting in even hotter temperatures as moisture is trapped
underneath. A few thunderstorms are expected to pop up later
tomorrow afternoon in the lowlands as we hit convective temps and
outflows from the mountains interact with each other. The
convection lingers into the evening before clearing out by
Wednesday morning.

A shortwave trough rotates around the monsoon high on Wednesday
from eastern AZ through the Four Corners, bringing the main
moisture plume into the CWA. As it does so, decent convergence
develops at the surface, settling somewhere near the RGV. PWs
climb closer to 1.5" (Euro ensemble is more bullish on moisture)
on Wednesday, enhancing the threat for flash flooding and heavy
rainfall from thunderstorms into the overnight. Scattered to
widespread showers and storms are forecast Wed PM, so Flood
Watches may be posted in the next 24 hours or so.

The moisture plume weakens into Thursday as the ridge gets
suppressed south and eastward. An elevated risk for flooding
lingers through Thursday as PWs remain pretty high (~1.25"). For
Friday and Saturday, normal monsoon weather is expected with
scattered mountain activity and isolated in the lowlands. The
weakened monsoon high sits over the Southeast US late week, but
looks to re- strengthen for the weekend. A healthy tap of Gulf
moisture returns next weekend into early next week from the
southeast, especially for western areas.

Temperatures continue to heat up through Tues, well into the 100s
for El Paso, but not as hot as the heat wave earlier this month.
Heat Advisories have been extended through Wednesday for the same
zones as Tuesday since the high remains overhead and cloud cover
should hold off until later in the day. Temps fall closer to
normal on Thursday due to cloud cover and the suppressed ridge but
rebound late in the week. Another cool down is expected next
weekend as the moisture plume returns to the area. Outside of
gusty outflow boundaries, light winds are forecast through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over the
mountains this afternoon, pushing near KTCS late in the day. Gusts
near 25kts are possible for KTCS from outflows along with VIS
reductions to MVFR criteria. Otherwise, dry conditions and light
winds are expected, shifting from SE this afternoon to NW
overnight. The southern three TAF sites should avoid thunderstorm
activity today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through the week as the monsoon
flow persists. Storm chances will increase somewhat area-wide on
Tuesday as moisture begins to increase, but focusing over the
mountains. Wednesday and Thursday will see high moisture content
and the enhanced risk of flash flooding, especially over sensitive
areas such as recent burn scars. More widespread activity is
expected from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Debris flows
will be a concern around Ruidoso with any storms that develop over
the burns. Overnight recoveries will be good. Other than gusty
outflows, winds will remain light, shifting more westerly later in
the week. Storm chances decrease somewhat into the weekend with
scattered storms in the mountains and isolated for the lowlands.
Hot temperatures are expected through Wednesday, cooling slightly
late in the week closer to average. Another cool down is expected
for next weekend.

Min RHs will range from 15-20% in the lowlands on Tuesday, then
18-30%; 20-35% in the mountains on Tuesday, then 25-45%. Vent
rates will be fair to good on Tuesday, then good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  82 108  84 106 /  10  20  40  40
Sierra Blanca            72  99  74  99 /  10  20  40  40
Las Cruces               77 105  78 104 /  10  20  30  40
Alamogordo               72 102  75 101 /  10  20  20  50
Cloudcroft               57  79  58  78 /  10  50  30  60
Truth or Consequences    76 101  77  99 /  30  40  20  50
Silver City              68  93  69  94 /  40  70  30  70
Deming                   74 103  76 103 /  30  40  30  50
Lordsburg                72 100  75 101 /  30  50  40  60
West El Paso Metro       80 105  81 104 /  10  20  40  40
Dell City                74 103  76 102 /  10  20  30  40
Fort Hancock             75 106  77 106 /  10  20  40  40
Loma Linda               73  98  75  97 /  10  20  30  40
Fabens                   78 106  79 107 /  10  20  40  40
Santa Teresa             75 103  77 104 /  10  20  40  40
White Sands HQ           80 103  83 102 /  20  20  40  40
Jornada Range            72 103  74 103 /  20  30  30  40
Hatch                    73 105  76 105 /  20  40  30  40
Columbus                 78 103  81 104 /  30  30  40  50
Orogrande                75 102  77 102 /  10  20  30  40
Mayhill                  60  88  62  88 /  10  50  30  60
Mescalero                60  90  61  88 /  10  40  20  60
Timberon                 60  88  61  87 /  10  40  30  60
Winston                  62  90  64  92 /  30  60  20  70
Hillsboro                73  97  74  98 /  30  60  30  70
Spaceport                70 101  72 102 /  20  30  30  40
Lake Roberts             63  93  64  93 /  40  70  20  70
Hurley                   67  97  69  97 /  30  50  30  60
Cliff                    65 101  66 102 /  30  60  20  60
Mule Creek               69  95  69  96 /  30  60  20  60
Faywood                  70  96  72  97 /  30  50  30  60
Animas                   73  99  74 101 /  40  50  40  60
Hachita                  73 101  75 101 /  40  40  40  60
Antelope Wells           72  99  74 100 /  50  50  50  60
Cloverdale               67  93  70  94 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ410-
     411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson