Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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880 FXUS64 KEPZ 181738 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1138 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Dry and warm conditions will be prevalent across the area through the weekend. Slight rain chances are possible for the Sacramento mountains and portions of Hudspeth County on Friday afternoon with the remainder of the area remaining dry. Southwest to west winds will become lightly breezy in the afternoon each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A steady west to southwest flow pattern aloft will maintain a quiet weather pattern over the area for the next couple of days. Temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas will continue to run 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the afternoon with middle 90s for most lowland locations. With greater heating in the afternoon, there will be deeper mixing of the surface boundary layer with stronger winds aloft for some afternoon breeziness each day. On Friday will a Pacific low pressure system will move into northern Arizona, tightening the southwest flow between the low and a ridge of high pressure over central Texas. This will cause moisture south of the region to be pulled up over eastern portions of the forecast area on Friday, setting up a potential for some shower and thunderstorm development along a dry line expected to straddle Otero and Hudspeth counties by Friday afternoon. The Sacramento Mountains will have the best chance for measurable rainfall and storms at about 30 percent with some isolated showers and storms occurring across southern Otero and Hudspeth counties from mid afternoon to the early evening. Rain amounts will be spotty with a few locations getting moderate amounts of rain. For the remainder of the region west of the dry line, dry and warm conditions with afternoon breezes will continue. Dry and warm conditions will persist through the weekend as a west to southwest flow pattern pushes moisture back east of the area. Latest model runs suggest moisture will again approach the area from the south and east on Sunday, but will likely remain far enough east to not impact the region. The weather forecast for the first part of next week has become a bit more unsettled and uncertain. Long range forecast models differ widely and have poor run to run continuity about what will occur next week. Overall they hint a the development of a deep low pressure trough over the middle of the country that will extend at least in part over the local area while at the same time bringing moisture into the region, increasing rain chances. On the flip side of that scenario the models sometimes also advertise that local area will be under a high pressure ridge for continued dry weather. Best low confidence forecast for next week is that the local area will remain mostly dry with some uncertainty regarding rain for areas mainly east of Rio Grande heading into mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VMC through the forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Clear skies today with only FEW100 overnight. Surface winds generally 210-240 at 08-12 knots this evening, weakening and veering to 260-300 at 04-08 knots overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Dry and warm conditions will persist across most of the area through the weekend. There is a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms for portions of Otero and Hudspeth counties on Friday, including the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will be prevalent through into next week. Minimum RH values will be in the lower teens in the lowlands with 20 percent range in the mountains. The lowlands of South Central New Mexico will have elevated fire conditions with southwesterly breezes in the afternoon with daytime heating but wind speeds should stay below critical values. Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 69 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 90 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 91 61 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 90 61 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 68 48 72 52 / 0 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 89 59 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 81 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 90 58 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 87 58 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 92 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 94 62 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 95 66 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 85 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 93 65 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 89 63 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 90 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 61 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 91 58 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 89 61 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 89 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 81 53 84 56 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 78 52 83 55 / 0 0 10 0 Timberon 77 52 81 54 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 81 48 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 87 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 80 48 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 83 53 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 88 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 81 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 83 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 89 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 87 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 89 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 81 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt