358
FXUS64 KEPZ 151159
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
559 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Sub-tropical moisture will persist over the area through Tuesday,
resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance
for rain will be north and west of Las Cruces today and again
Monday, with the rain chances spreading east across the Rio Grande
Valley Monday night. The moisture begins receding east on
Tuesday, but a slight chance of thunderstorms will exist east of
the Rio Grande Valley. The rest of the work week into the the
weekend will remain dry but temperatures will drop to just above
normal levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

WV imagery shows ex TS Ileana now dissipated over Mexican
Chihuahuan Desert with her moisture mostly over southern and
eastern Texas. A modest portion of moisture that was north of
Ileana remains in place over eastern Arizona and western New
Mexico. This moisture will continue to fuel rain chances over the
next 2-3 days. Meanwhile, strong Pacific upper low has moved over
Vancouver Island and will continue to dig south and deepen
slightly, being located over northern California tonight.

For today and Monday...southwest flow ahead of the upper low will
produce series of weak short waves that traverse across New Mexico
and help to kick off showers/thunderstorms through tonight with
remnant moisture. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF and several hi-res models all in
good agreement keeping POPs mainly north and west of Las Cruces
this afternoon and night where instability and best synoptic
forcing are. Overnight showers may persist but mostly west of
Deming. On Monday with the upper low moving over the Great Basin,
moisture will begin to spread east. Showers/thunderstorms mainly
west of the Rio Grande Valley in the morning/afternoon but by late
afternoon or early evening the chances of rain should spread east
over most of remainder of CWA. Slow warming at mid levels will
not help lapse rates, but models still showing decent DCAPE values
and dewpoint depressions today and Monday for some strong wind
gust threat. PWs well above normal suggest some heavy rain/flood
potential. Storm motion relatively slow today could aid in some
flooding, with the Gila/Black Range the main worry. Storm motion
increases Monday so flood threat less likely. Temperatures will
remain well above normal.

Tuesday...upper low over Great Basin begins lifting out over the
northern Rockies with main trough rotating across New Mexico and
forcing the remaining moisture east. Look for some morning showers
still possible in the west, but then the chance of
showers/thunderstorms will move to the Rio Grande Valley early
afternoon and then the far eastern CWA by late afternoon.

Wednesday and beyond...drier air moving in will reform dry-line
just east of the CWA. Models show typical undulating dance of the
dry-line just east of the CWA through Friday. Westward
protrusions could aid in a few showers over the far eastern CWA,
but left out any mention of this for now. Second upper low rapidly
digs south down the west coast and to near the Four Corners
Friday. This upper low and trough will bring drier air into CWA
and kick the dry-line further east through Sunday. High
temperatures will fall to near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

West of Deming...SCT100 BKN250. Developing after 18Z...scattered
BKN070CB -SHRA/-TSRA. Deming east...SKC-SCT250. Thunderstorms from
the west spreading to or developing over much of this area, mainly
north and west of Las Cruces. A few of these storms could produce
brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 40 knots. TAF sites: some
risk of a thunderstorm for KDMN and KTCS but not enough confidence
yet to include. Risk of thunderstorm for KELP and KLRU is very
low, but not zero.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Some sub-tropical moisture persisting across the fire zones
through Tuesday. Scattered showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon/tonight mostly north and west of Las Cruces. More
showers/thunderstorms Monday slowly spreading east across most of
the zones. Strong and erratic winds possible near these storms.
Temperatures remaining above normal. Drying out Wednesday into the
weekend, with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures.
Breezy afternoons Thursday and Friday could lead to some elevated
fire conditions, mainly lower elevations.

Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% through Tuesday dropping to 15-20%
Wednesday through Friday. Mountains 30-45% through Tuesday
dropping to 20-30% Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates good-very
good today and Monday, then very good-excellent Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  96  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  30
Sierra Blanca            89  65  90  65 /   0  10   0  20
Las Cruces               94  66  92  68 /  10  10  20  30
Alamogordo               93  66  92  66 /  20  20  20  30
Cloudcroft               72  46  71  47 /  20  30  30  30
Truth or Consequences    91  62  87  64 /  20  20  30  20
Silver City              87  57  83  57 /  40  30  50  30
Deming                   94  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
Lordsburg                89  62  86  62 /  30  30  40  30
West El Paso Metro       94  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
Dell City                94  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             95  68  95  70 /   0  10  10  20
Loma Linda               89  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  20
Fabens                   96  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa             93  68  92  69 /  10  10  20  30
White Sands HQ           93  69  91  69 /  10  10  10  30
Jornada Range            93  65  91  66 /  20  20  20  30
Hatch                    94  63  93  65 /  20  20  20  30
Columbus                 93  67  89  68 /  20  20  30  30
Orogrande                92  66  90  66 /  10  10  10  30
Mayhill                  85  50  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
Mescalero                84  52  84  52 /  20  20  30  30
Timberon                 82  49  80  51 /  10  20  20  20
Winston                  83  51  80  52 /  40  20  40  20
Hillsboro                90  59  85  59 /  20  20  40  30
Spaceport                92  61  88  62 /  20  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             84  50  81  52 /  50  30  60  30
Hurley                   87  57  85  58 /  30  20  40  30
Cliff                    88  50  83  48 /  40  30  50  30
Mule Creek               84  46  81  44 /  40  30  40  30
Faywood                  88  59  85  60 /  20  20  40  30
Animas                   90  64  86  62 /  30  30  40  20
Hachita                  90  63  88  62 /  20  20  30  30
Antelope Wells           90  62  86  60 /  20  20  30  20
Cloverdale               86  59  81  58 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner