984
FXUS64 KEPZ 231050
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
450 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Relatively quite week with a slight drop in temperatures through
Tuesday then a warm up going into the weekend. Hudspeth County may
see isolated storms today, but the rest of the area looks mainly
rain free this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A backdoor cold front has pushed through the area and is currently
over Luna County. This cooler airmass will result in cooler
temperatures compared to what we have seen recently with lowland
highs in the 80s. This boundary did advect surface moisture into
the area which could aid in storm development in southern Hudspeth
County this afternoon. The limiting factors are a forcing
mechanism and very dry air aloft, but if storms can form over the
terrain in Mexico and move into TX then there is a chance of an
isolated severe storm or two. If storms can overcome that dry air,
there will be ~1000 J/kg of CAPE and almost 50kts of shear.
Hodographs suggest possible splitting cells with rotation
possible in a right or left moving storm if they were to split.
Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threat if a storm
could overcome the dry air aloft for an hour or two this
afternoon.

High pressure and ridging aloft build into the area quickly going
into the work week. This will bring a drier, but warmer airmass
over our area starting Wednesday which will likely bring our
temperatures back into the lower 90s in the lowlands. The axis of
high pressure moves over the area by the weekend which may drive
temperatures into the mid to upper 90s which would be 10 degrees
above average for this time of year. With many outdoor events
happening this weekend, heat safety precautions are recommended
with hydration needing to start happening by mid week. NBM
probabilities are showing a 5-10% chance of reaching 100F in the
El Paso Metro Friday and Saturday with a 25% chance of getting up
to 97F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all airports, but MVFR ceilings are
being observed in southern and eastern Hudspeth Counties this
morning. These clouds will likely move eastward throughout the
day. No storms are expected with little cloud coverage at all TAF
sites. Winds will remain light out of the east for most of the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Fire weather concerns will remain low through most of the week
with light winds and Min RH values above 20 percent. Friday drier
air does move into the area with RH values below 15 percent, but
winds remain low which will mitigate any fire risk. Fuels remain
moist as well with ERC percentiles below 50 for the area.
Precipitation chances will be little to none for the entire
period for all areas outside of Hudspeth County.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            77  58  84  59 /  30  10  10   0
Las Cruces               86  60  90  62 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               84  58  88  59 /  10   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               63  43  65  43 /  10   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    84  58  88  59 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              80  55  83  57 /   0   0  10   0
Deming                   86  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                85  58  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       84  66  89  67 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                83  58  90  59 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             84  61  91  62 /  40  10  10   0
Loma Linda               78  58  83  60 /  10   0  10   0
Fabens                   84  62  90  63 /  20  10  10   0
Santa Teresa             83  61  88  63 /  10   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           84  63  89  65 /  10   0  10   0
Jornada Range            84  59  88  59 /  10   0  10   0
Hatch                    87  58  90  58 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus                 84  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                83  58  86  59 /  10   0  10   0
Mayhill                  76  48  78  47 /  10  10  10  10
Mescalero                74  47  77  47 /  10   0  10   0
Timberon                 72  46  74  47 /  10  10  10   0
Winston                  77  47  81  48 /  10  10  10   0
Hillsboro                84  55  86  56 /   0  10  10   0
Spaceport                84  56  87  55 /   0   0  10   0
Lake Roberts             80  48  83  50 /   0  10  10   0
Hurley                   81  53  86  55 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                    89  50  92  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               82  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  56  84  58 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                   85  57  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  83  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  58  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...01-Barham