Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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772 FXUS64 KEPZ 190535 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1135 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Southwest winds will keep temperatures warm and push moisture to our east through the rest of the week. Slight rain chances for the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County Friday afternoon before another Pacific low brings clear and mild weather over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Southwest flow aloft today as we sit between systems. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low off the central California coast with a high pressure system centered over Coahuila Mexico. Higher moisture sits just off to our east, evident by higher dewpoints further down the Rio Grande valley into southwest Texas. This southwest flow regime points to warm and dry weather through Friday, with temperatures likely to remain 5 to 10 degrees above late September normals. Lowland highs will be in the lower-to-mid 90s, with El Paso 95-98 degrees. Approaching Pacific low combined with a moisture intrusion will allow storm chances to return to our far eastern forecast zones Friday afternoon. This primarily applies to the US-54 corridor eastward (Sacramento Mountains, Otero Mesa, and Hudspeth County), with continued dry weather across the rest of southwest New Mexico. Storm coverage looks quite spotty and El Paso looks to remain on the dry side for now. Pacific low ejects across the Central Rockies on Saturday which should enhance surface westerlies and push any available moisture out of the area. This weekend looks to be much more "early fall- like" with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s close to seasonal normals, clear skies, and a slight chill in the air overnight. Light flow pattern next week with high pressure aloft over the Southwest US. Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding rain chances with the models showing large spreads in solutions and the light flow difficult to resolve. Precipitable water forecasts are quite lacking in recent model runs, thus I would expect most of the area to remain dry next week with only a few windows of opportunity for rain showers if the weather pattern is favorable. Best bet for temperatures is warm but close to normal for late September. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW100-250 and SKC. The winds will be generally light below 10 kts while out from the southwest. However, the winds at KTCS could gust up to 21 kts between 19 and 00Z Friday. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Dry and warm southwest flow across southwest New Mexico through the rest of the week. 20-ft speeds 10 to 15 mph each afternoon. Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation with transport to the NE. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances through Thursday, but moisture intrusion Friday afternoon will allow for isolated thunderstorms over Lincoln National Forest. Midday RH 15-25%, with higher numbers over LNF. Pacific low crosses the Central Rockies Saturday, bringing dry and mild weather this weekend. Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly dry and warm for southern New Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 69 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 90 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 91 61 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 90 61 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 68 48 72 52 / 0 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 89 59 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 81 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 90 58 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 87 58 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 92 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 94 62 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 95 66 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 85 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 93 65 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 89 63 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 90 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 61 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 91 58 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 89 61 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 89 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 81 53 84 56 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 78 52 83 55 / 0 0 10 0 Timberon 77 52 81 54 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 81 48 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 87 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 80 48 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 83 53 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 88 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 81 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 83 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 89 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 87 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 89 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 81 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen