772
FXUS64 KEPZ 190535
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1135 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Southwest winds will keep temperatures warm and push moisture to
our east through the rest of the week. Slight rain chances for
the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County Friday afternoon
before another Pacific low brings clear and mild weather over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Southwest flow aloft today as we sit between systems. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper low off the central California coast with
a high pressure system centered over Coahuila Mexico. Higher
moisture sits just off to our east, evident by higher dewpoints
further down the Rio Grande valley into southwest Texas.

This southwest flow regime points to warm and dry weather through
Friday, with temperatures likely to remain 5 to 10 degrees above
late September normals. Lowland highs will be in the lower-to-mid
90s, with El Paso 95-98 degrees.

Approaching Pacific low combined with a moisture intrusion will
allow storm chances to return to our far eastern forecast zones
Friday afternoon. This primarily applies to the US-54 corridor
eastward (Sacramento Mountains, Otero Mesa, and Hudspeth County),
with continued dry weather across the rest of southwest New
Mexico. Storm coverage looks quite spotty and El Paso looks to
remain on the dry side for now.

Pacific low ejects across the Central Rockies on Saturday which
should enhance surface westerlies and push any available moisture
out of the area. This weekend looks to be much more "early fall-
like" with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s close to
seasonal normals, clear skies, and a slight chill in the air
overnight.

Light flow pattern next week with high pressure aloft over the
Southwest US. Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding rain chances
with the models showing large spreads in solutions and the light
flow difficult to resolve. Precipitable water forecasts are quite
lacking in recent model runs, thus I would expect most of the area
to remain dry next week with only a few windows of opportunity
for rain showers if the weather pattern is favorable. Best bet for
temperatures is warm but close to normal for late September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG FEW100-250 and SKC. The winds will be generally light
below 10 kts while out from the southwest. However, the winds at
KTCS could gust up to 21 kts between 19 and 00Z Friday. There will
be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dry and warm southwest flow across southwest New Mexico through
the rest of the week. 20-ft speeds 10 to 15 mph each afternoon.
Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation with transport to the
NE. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances through Thursday, but
moisture intrusion Friday afternoon will allow for isolated
thunderstorms over Lincoln National Forest. Midday RH 15-25%, with
higher numbers over LNF. Pacific low crosses the Central Rockies
Saturday, bringing dry and mild weather this weekend.

Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with
drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly
dry and warm for southern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  69  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  64  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  61  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               90  61  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               68  48  72  52 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    89  59  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              81  55  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  58  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  58  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  68  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                94  62  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  66  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  64  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  65  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  63  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  61  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  58  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 89  61  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                89  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  81  53  84  56 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                78  52  83  55 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                 77  52  81  54 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  81  48  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                89  56  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             80  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    88  50  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  83  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   89  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen