283
FXUS64 KEPZ 260528
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1128 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Hot temperatures continue through Wednesday as moisture levels
climb. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop
Wednesday afternoon, resulting in areas of flash flooding,
especially over recent burn scars. The elevated risk for flooding
lingers into Thursday as temperatures cool slightly. Lower rain
chances are forecast late in the week before monsoonal moisture
returns over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Relatively quiet weather is expected through tomorrow morning as
the monsoon high sits overhead. Temperatures have heated up nicely
early this afternoon which may be enough to spark a few showers
in the lowlands. Scattered showers and storms persist in the
mountains into the evening. Most areas stay dry through tonight
as the terrain- based activity dissipates this evening.

The forecast for Wednesday remains on track with an upper trough
rotating around the high to the north, possibly associated with the
MCV currently in the Phoenix vicinity. Moisture levels rise with PWs
near 1.5" (about 40% chance of reaching that threshold according
to the GEFS in El Paso) Wednesday night. Converging surface winds
are modeled somewhere near the RGV as well later in the day,
creating more lift over the area. Hot temperatures underneath the
ridge Wednesday afternoon should be enough to reach convective
temps and initiate cells in the lowlands. Slow storm motion and
high moisture content will create the potential for heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding into the overnight. The current burn
scars are most susceptible to flash flooding and debris flows,
warranting a Flood Watch for the Sacs that goes into effect at
11am and lasts through Wed night.

On Thursday, the high gets suppressed to the south by an upper
trough swinging through the northern Rockies. Rain chances and PWs
lower somewhat as a result with not much forcing available. This
drying trend lasts through Friday as the high stretches eastward
and shuts off most of the moisture advection. For the weekend, the
monsoon high strengthens and consolidates over the Southern
Plains, setting up a nice moisture tap over the Desert SW. Most of
the moisture sits over western areas with lower chances of daily
storms east of the Rio Grande into early next week. More
widespread storm coverage is expected west of the Divide from
Saturday onward.

For the rest of the week, generally hot conditions are expected
as the elongating ridge remains nearby. Temps rebound to near
advisory level Friday and Saturday for the lower RGV due to less
clouds. Cooler temperatures near average are forecast by Sunday
as the high holds to the east and cloud cover increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Lingering outflow boundaries are making for a low confidence
forecast in terms of winds this evening. Nevertheless, prevailing
flow will generally be west to northwest with speeds under 10 knots,
except when influenced by an outflow. Slight chance for ISO
SHRA/TSRA will continue for the next few hours, but chances for
direct terminal impacts are low. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
with variable cloudiness with bases around 100-150 through
approximately 18 to 21z. During the 18 to 21z time period, SCT
SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop area wide, initially over the
mountains before moving into the lowlands. High confidence there
will be at least indirect impacts at all terminal sites via outflow
winds with a high confidence for direct impacts. The only limiting
factor for confidence is timing, so added prob30 to all TAF sites
beginning 21z. Strong gusty winds and heavy rain, including flight
category reductions in VIS and CIG, will be the main concern with
any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fire weather concerns will be minimal through the period.
Monsoonal moisture remains in place into next week, keeping
relative humidities high and resulting in daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Overnight recoveries will be very good.
Winds will be light outside of gusty outflow boundaries from
storms. An elevated risk of flash flooding on Wednesday and then
this weekend may result in debris flows over burn scars. Rain
chances will lower Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be
warmer than normal for the rest of the week, then cooling to near
average next week.

Min RHs will be 25-30% in the lowlands Thursday, otherwise 15-25%;
25-40% in the mountains Thursday, otherwise 20-35%. Vent rates
will be fair to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  84 107  82 101 /  40  70  70  40
Sierra Blanca            75  99  72  95 /  50  60  50  30
Las Cruces               78 105  76  99 /  40  70  70  40
Alamogordo               75 101  71  96 /  30  60  60  40
Cloudcroft               59  79  55  73 /  30  60  60  60
Truth or Consequences    78 101  75  95 /  20  70  70  60
Silver City              69  94  68  89 /  40  70  60  60
Deming                   76 104  74  99 /  40  70  70  40
Lordsburg                74 100  73  97 /  40  60  60  40
West El Paso Metro       80 104  78  97 /  40  70  70  40
Dell City                76 103  73  99 /  40  60  40  30
Fort Hancock             77 106  74 101 /  40  70  60  30
Loma Linda               74  97  72  92 /  30  70  60  40
Fabens                   80 107  76  99 /  40  70  70  30
Santa Teresa             77 104  75  97 /  40  70  70  40
White Sands HQ           82 102  78  95 /  40  70  70  40
Jornada Range            75 103  72  95 /  30  70  70  40
Hatch                    75 105  74  97 /  40  70  70  50
Columbus                 81 104  77  97 /  40  60  70  40
Orogrande                77 102  74  95 /  40  70  60  30
Mayhill                  63  89  61  85 /  30  70  50  60
Mescalero                63  89  59  84 /  30  60  60  60
Timberon                 61  87  58  83 /  20  60  50  50
Winston                  64  92  62  84 /  20  70  70  70
Hillsboro                74  98  71  92 /  30  70  70  70
Spaceport                72 102  68  94 /  20  70  70  50
Lake Roberts             65  93  64  88 /  40  70  60  70
Hurley                   69  97  67  93 /  30  70  70  40
Cliff                    66 102  67  99 /  40  60  50  40
Mule Creek               71  96  70  92 /  30  60  50  40
Faywood                  72  97  69  91 /  30  70  70  50
Animas                   73  99  72  96 /  50  60  60  40
Hachita                  74 101  71  95 /  40  60  70  50
Antelope Wells           73  99  70  93 /  50  70  70  60
Cloverdale               69  94  69  90 /  50  70  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ410-411.

     Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT Wednesday through late Wednesday
     night for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira