896
FXUS64 KEPZ 171106
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
506 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Hot and dry weather continues through Tuesday before a change in
the weather pattern brings plentiful moisture from the southeast
Thursday into the weekend. Much cooler temperatures Thursday and
Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms area wide. Heat
will return by next week, but daily thunderstorm chances will
continue over the high terrain as this year`s monsoon season
begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moisture boundary sits just off to our east, with Carlsbad/Roswell
reporting dewpoints in the upper 50s and El Paso/Alamogordo in
the lower 20s. Not expecting this boundary to make it any further
than the east slopes of the Guadalupe/Sacramento Ranges this
morning, with dry conditions area wide again today. Clear skies
and low-end breezy southwest winds this afternoon should allow
temperatures to heat up again, only slightly above normal. NBM
shows a high of 103-106F for El Paso, a few degrees cooler than
yesterday. Heat Advisory will remain in effect for El Paso and the
Lower Valley one more day through Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks
to be similar, with a down-tick in winds allowing lowland highs to
drop a few degrees again (Upper 90s southern NM, 102 El Paso).

Pattern change beginning on Wednesday with an inverted trough
retrograding from the Gulf of Mexico across south-central Texas,
primarily forced by high pressure aloft along the Atlantic Coast.
Moisture will begin to reach the eastern portion of the forecast
area due to a shift in surface winds to the southeast, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the Sacramento
Mountains and Hudspeth County that afternoon. Mostly dry
elsewhere, with similar warm temperatures. Guidance does suggest
El Paso has a chance of meeting Heat Advisory criteria that day,
but current forecast keeps highs 102-105F.

This year`s monsoon season begins on June 20 with the arrival of
rich surface moisture Thursday morning. Surface dewpoints will
soar to the mid-to-upper 50s as moisture flows in from central
Texas, cloud coverage will become more common, and rain chances
will return to the forecast at long last. Atmospheric precipitable
water, which has lately hovered around 0.25-0.50" will jump over
1.00" (above the 90% percentile climatology). One big impact will
be cooler temperatures, with lowland highs only reaching the lower
90s Thursday/Friday due to more clouds and upslope flow. Current
forecast projects the best rain chances to focus eastward along
the TX/NM state line where synoptic lifting directly under the
trough is most favorable for showers development. Friday may be
mostly cloudy. Nevertheless, scattered afternoon showers over the
high terrain and isolated lowland showers in the evening
Thursday/Friday can be expected for all zones. Coverage will be
spotty, with the main storm threats being gusty outflow winds and
lightning.

Broad high pressure over the Southern US into late June will
quickly bump temperatures back up next week, but marginal storm
chances will continue with moisture lingering.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow. Surface
winds 230-260 at 08-12 knots this morning, increasing to 15G25KT
by the afternoon hours. Peak gusts to 30 knots in the late
afternoon. Skies remaining clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Elevated fire danger today with southwest winds 15 to 20 mph and
min RH 5-12%. Winds peaking in the late afternoon with Excellent
smoke ventilation and transport to the NE. Winds will be a bit
lighter on Tuesday with similar conditions otherwise.

Pattern change expected late this week as moisture arrives from
the southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud
coverage Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be much
cooler those days under ESE flows and Good ventilation. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, with
gusty and erratic outflow winds and possible new lightning starts.
Monsoon season well underway next week with continued daily storm
chances and seasonably hot temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            99  67  96  66 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              102  67 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              101  66  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               78  52  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    99  66  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              90  59  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  101  61  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                98  62  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      101  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               103  65 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            105  66 102  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               95  66  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  103  68 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            100  66  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           99  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            99  63  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   101  64  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                100  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                99  66  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  90  58  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 86  53  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  90  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                95  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                98  59  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             89  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   94  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    98  55  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               92  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  93  60  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   98  61  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  98  62  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           96  60  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               90  59  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt