Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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740 FXUS64 KEPZ 140527 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1127 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue into early next week with just a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and far eastern areas through Friday. High temperatures for the lowlands will continue to be at or above 100 degrees through at least Tuesday before a gradual cool down starts for the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Models in very good agreement through early next week. Upper ridge currently over the region will get broken down over the next 24-36 hours, which would typically bring a nice cool down in temperatures, but instead we get into a dry west to southwest flow which just keeps temperatures hot. The upper low that breaks down the ridge will not have much moisture with it, especially low level, but just enough instability that a few storms are possible over the mountains the far east Friday. NBM Pops seemed high and lowered about 10-20 percent, especially over the eastern lowlands. As the system passes, winds behind it will pick up over areas west of the Divide to 15-25 mph. Temperatures will drop about 2 to 5 degrees, but most lowland areas will remain at or above 100 degrees. Saturday through Tuesday will just see the upper flow go from west to southwest as another trough moves onshore. Occasional breezy winds, especially Mon/Tue will keep the fire danger elevated. Temperatures with the southwest surface winds will continue to remain in the triple digits for the lowlands but likely falling short of record highs. NBM temperatures seem to have caught onto the recent low bias and look reasonable most days. Additional advisories will likely be needed starting Sat RGV and across most of the lowlands by Sun, but for simplicity, will leave highlights going as is. As the upper trough deepens by midweek, the surface low will shift toward the Rio Grande Valley and bring in some low level moisture and cooler temperatures. Operational GFS is the most aggressive with this moisture push and cool down, but it`s ensemble mean is closer to the EC operational and mean, so will lean toward the mean for now. This brings in some isolated to widely scattered pops into the eastern zones by Wed afternoon and again Thu with a better westward push. Temperatures have the chance with a good moisture push and the southeast surface winds to drop highs down to around 100 for the El Paso area and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Most of the wandering outflow boundaries tonight have died off and the winds are slowly coming down. KDMN still has some low end gusty winds. In general our winds will be light tonight, but it won`t last. An approaching upper level storm system will bring another round of breezy and low end gusty winds to the area Friday afternoon. The winds will drop back off around Friday evening`s sunset. Our ceilings will generally be unlimited tonight, with some occasional high and mid clouds floating by. We may see a few showers or thunderstorms Friday afternoon mainly in area mountains. Like today, any storms that do form could produce gusty outflow winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Besides a few isolated storms this afternoon and Friday, dry and continued hot will be the story. West winds will increase later in the day Friday across SW NM. Expect a few hours of critical or near critical conditions over the Gila during this time. West to southwest winds will continue for the weekend into early next week which will keep temperatures around 100 to 105 with RH`s in the single digits for the lowlands. Winds will pick up once again toward critical speeds Monday and Tuesday and combine with these low RH`s. Possible moisture push for the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 110 78 106 75 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 102 72 99 71 / 10 10 10 20 Las Cruces 108 73 105 69 / 0 10 10 10 Alamogordo 106 72 101 68 / 0 10 30 20 Cloudcroft 82 58 78 55 / 10 10 50 30 Truth or Consequences 104 73 99 70 / 0 20 30 10 Silver City 99 68 96 65 / 10 20 20 0 Deming 107 68 104 63 / 0 10 10 10 Lordsburg 105 71 101 66 / 10 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 107 76 104 73 / 10 10 10 10 Dell City 106 71 102 68 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 109 73 106 70 / 10 10 10 20 Loma Linda 101 73 98 70 / 10 10 10 20 Fabens 110 72 107 69 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 107 72 103 69 / 0 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 107 75 101 72 / 10 10 20 10 Jornada Range 107 65 102 63 / 0 10 20 10 Hatch 108 70 104 67 / 0 10 20 10 Columbus 107 75 104 72 / 0 10 10 10 Orogrande 105 74 101 71 / 10 10 20 20 Mayhill 94 61 88 58 / 10 10 50 30 Mescalero 94 60 88 57 / 10 10 50 30 Timberon 91 58 87 55 / 10 10 30 20 Winston 96 62 89 59 / 10 20 30 10 Hillsboro 102 71 96 68 / 10 20 20 10 Spaceport 105 68 99 65 / 0 10 30 10 Lake Roberts 98 52 91 47 / 10 20 20 0 Hurley 102 66 98 63 / 10 10 20 0 Cliff 107 58 101 53 / 10 10 20 0 Mule Creek 101 57 97 52 / 10 20 10 0 Faywood 101 69 96 66 / 10 10 20 10 Animas 105 71 102 68 / 10 10 10 0 Hachita 105 69 102 66 / 0 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 105 71 102 68 / 10 10 10 0 Cloverdale 100 71 96 68 / 10 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422. Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419- 423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416- 417-425-427>429. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ110. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown