Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
978
FNUS74 KEPZ 221804
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Normandy Incident...Silver City Dispatch Center
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1204 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mostly dry conditions are expected through the period as most of
the subtropical moisture is pushed to the west. Isolated showers
and storms are possible each afternoon and evening this weekend
with gusty outflow winds. Storm chances increase beginning on
Monday as the moisture plume nudges into the area. Other than gusty
outflows from storms, winds will be light from the southeast,
shifting westerly early next week. Temperatures warm to above
normal next week. Vent rates will be good each afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (95100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (112300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........24 24 26
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40
LAL.............4 4 4
Temp............85 89 90
RH..............37 30 26
20 ft wind......E 9 E 9 E 9
20 ft wind gust.16 16 15
Mix hgt (ft)....8600 9500 9900
Transport wind..E 13 E 13 E 13
Haines index....2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..95 102 112
Ventrate Cat....GOOD VYGD VYGD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the
north around 6 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (103700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........29 29 26 25 25 26
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 10 10 10
LAL.............3 3 1 1 1 1
Temp............87 80 75 72 70 68
RH..............27 35 41 48 51 63
20 ft wind......E 8 E 8 NE 7 NE 7 NE 7 N 6
20 ft wind gust.13 13 13 14 14 12
Mix hgt (ft)....9400 1400 400 400 400 400
Transport wind..E 13 E 13 E 14 E 14 SW 9 SW 9
Haines index....3 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..104 34 5 5 3 3
Ventrate Cat....VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of showers early
in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Showers likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the east around 9
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (78300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........30 10 14 30
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 40 60
LAL.............1 1 4 5
Temp............67 79 87 92
RH..............70 50 32 24
20 FT wind......W 5G8 SW 5G9 SE 5G10 S 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....300 1900 8500 9500
Transport wind..W 7 W 7 E 9 SE 9
Haines index....2 3 2 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 11 78 77
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...NMSDC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416523.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov