644
FXUS64 KEWX 061908
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Some low clouds have held on in the southwestern CWA with mostly
clear skies across the remainder of the area. Temperatures are in
the upper 80s and low 90s with highs today several degrees higher.
Dewpoints are slightly lower and with clouds hanging on in the
southwest, current thinking is still no need for a Heat Advisory
today. There are some thunderstorms well west of the Rio Grande, but
not expecting these to get anywhere close to the CWA. For tonight,
the slightly drier air will lead to lows in the lower 70s in the
east, but moisture and low clouds will lead to continued to upper
70s to near 82 degrees in the Rio Grande Counties.

Tomorrow will be dry with highs back in the middle 90s to 104
degrees out west. Dewpoints will stay below critical values and heat
indices will be less than advisory levels once again. Southeast
surface winds are pretty light today, but should be slightly higher
tomorrow. Tomorrow night skies should be mostly clear for all areas
with lows in the lower to middle 70s for most of the area. This
could finally end bring sub 80 degree temperatures to Del Rio.
Otherwise, no major concerns are expected during the short-term
period of the forecast.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

By Saturday we will start to see some slight pattern shifts to where
the upper level ridge currently centered over the NM/TX area will
move SE across TX and into the northern gulf by late in the weekend.
This will setup some storm activity to likely form over OK and N
Texas along a weak frontal boundary. This boundary is forecast to
stall to our north in North or Central Texas as depicted in the
models as well as on WPCs surface forecast maps. This time of year,
outflow boundaries can generate enough lift for storms and aid to
reinforce these early June weak cold fronts. So as long as this
feature is near the northern/western areas of the CWA on
Monday...will keep the slight chances of POP in the forecast during
the day on Monday.

By the middle of next week, the upper ridge will re-establish over
northern Mexico into the front range of the Rockies...setting up
some more NW flow across the Southern Plains.  While this might keep
N TX and OK active again with storms like the past few weeks...there
doesnt appear to be much in the way of rain triggers for us except
if we get lucky with some outflow boundaries. Rest of the forecast
will be zero pop and temps mainly in the 90s...low 100s along the Rio
Grande as the ridge axis shifts to more of a SW to NE origin over
the state, limiting our influence from any NW flow events.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing for the I35 sites with mostly clear
skies in place. For DRT, MVFR ceilings are in the process of lifting.
Winds will be light through the period with speeds generally less
than 10 knots. Otherwise, mostly clear skies should prevail for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           83 105  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73 100  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  99  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75 100  73 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...09
Aviation...29