Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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454 FXUS64 KEWX 100527 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 544 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The past couple hours of satellite visible imagery have shown escalation cumulus growth over parts of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. While the convective allowing models have been running conservative for this area, the GFS runs have been somewhat consistent on this area being unstable for much of tonight with some pockets of heavy QPF amounts over 1 inch suggested at times. Tonight`s 12-hr PoP for this area is bumped up another 10 to 15 percent. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Clouds continue to dissipate over the eastern half of the area early this afternoon with lingering low to mid-level clouds in the west. These lingering clouds may keep a few locations over the southern Edwards Plateau slightly cooler today, but overall hot and humid conditions are seen across South Central Texas this afternoon. Highs will reach into the triple digits along the Rio Grande into the Rio Grande Plains with 90s expected elsewhere. A front currently draped across the panhandle of Texas will begin to move south tonight into Monday morning which will bring some low shower and thunderstorm chances to the area through Monday morning, mainly limited to the western half of the CWA. While isolated development ahead of this front may occur, the better chances look to be a complex developing in northwest Texas that will move towards the area late tonight or overnight. Low to moderate instability will be in place but shear is lacking, so storms may also be weakening as they move towards the area. As mentioned in the precious discussion, it is still early June, however, and some isolated severe activity cannot be ruled out. The aforementioned front and any outflow boundaries bring more low end (around 15-30 percent) chances for convection tomorrow. Thunderstorm development will likely be more isolated or scattered in the afternoon aided by diurnal heating. Placement for any storms tomorrow is still hard to say but not expecting any widespread activity or rainfall. Will need to watch for another complex skimming the northern portions of the area Monday night. Expect high temperatures to be a bit cooler tomorrow so no Heat Advisory is anticipated. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A midlevel shortwave trough will move across TX Tuesday and Wednesday and may provide enough lift to generate showers and thunderstorms. However, chances will only be around 20% and will be limited to the northern Hill Country and eastern Coastal Plains. Most of the region will remain dry. The shortwave will move off to the east Wednesday night, and the subtropical ridge will strengthen. Dry weather will return and a warming trend will begin. Triple digit highs will spread across from west to east south of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country reaching the western Coastal Plains by Friday. Dewpoint temperatures will remain mainly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s keeping heat indices below advisory criteria. Above normal temperatures will continue over next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Thunderstorm complex moving through the San Antonio sites is mostly over, but will include VCSH/VCTS through 7z to account for the exiting activity. Some light rain will also be possible. Additional storms are developing well north of DRT and will have to watch for that to possibly impact the terminal there, but will keep the forecast dry. VFR will mostly prevail through the period with additional isolated to scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Will mention VCSH to cover that for now. Winds will be mostly light through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 94 73 90 / 10 10 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 94 72 89 / 10 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 96 73 93 / 10 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 91 71 87 / 10 10 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 101 80 101 / 20 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 92 71 87 / 10 10 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 73 97 74 93 / 10 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 94 72 91 / 10 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 92 73 89 / 10 10 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 96 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 75 98 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...05 Aviation...29