029
FXUS64 KEWX 211915
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
215 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper air analysis this morning showed a high centered over TN with
a ridge axis extending back over TX into northern Mexico. High
pressure at the center is centered over northeastern TX and winds
across our CWA were mostly from the east. Temperatures this
afternoon are mostly around five degrees higher than 24 hours ago.
Dewpoints are a couple of degrees lower due to a little better mixing
this afternoon. There are isolated showers moving from east to west
from the Coastal Plains to the western Edwards Plateau. This
activity should continue until around sunset. The upper ridge will
push back toward the west through this period. This  will suppress
most convection except across the southern tier of our CWA. Any
convection will be diurnally driven and showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon. A little less cloudiness
tonight will allow temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than they
were this morning. High temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees
warmer than today getting back to near normal. Not much change
Saturday night with lows unchanged from tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The outer influence of Tropical Disturbance Two (currently in the
Bay of Campeche) and whatever it may develop into (60 percent chance
of a tropical depression or stronger in the next seven days) will
bring slightly higher chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday, mainly along and south of U.S. 90. This influence will wane
after Sunday as the system dissipates in north central Mexico.

The rest of next week is a return to hot and humid conditions,
resulting in high heat indices. Actual temperatures will creep up
from the mid 90s to upper 90s to lower 100s, and heat index values
will routinely top out in the 105-110 range during the late morning
through early evening hours Monday through next Thursday. Thus we
expect Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will be needed
daily. Even though it`s beyond our forecast period, the heat will
continue into next weekend, followed by some hope for slightly cooler
conditions and rain chances as easterly low-level flow from the Gulf
picks up as the upper level ridge drifts west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The MVFR ceiling at AUS should lift to VFR within the next hour and
then all terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening.
There are isolated showers west of San Antonio and there is a chance
for one, or a thunderstorm, to move over DRT through the afternoon.
There is a smaller chance for showers in San Antonio and Austin, but
the probability is too low to include any mention in the TAFs. MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight at all of the terminals and last
until Saturday around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  93  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  72  94 /  10   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  92  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  94  77  97 /  20  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  93  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  91  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  91  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  92  73  93 /  10  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  93  74  94 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Zeitler
Aviation...05