Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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293 FXUS64 KEWX 222346 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Morning ceilings gradually lifted today, making way for partly cloudy conditions areawide. Radar imagery shows that current shower activity is well to the south of our area, in line with our current low pop forecast. While upper level ridging over the area is expected to persist, models are consistent in bringing a surface low pressure system located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico into northeast Mexico tomorrow. The will allow for increasing low level moisture to work its way back into southern portions of our CWA, bringing with it a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, generally along and south of the Highway 90 corridor. The Hill Country will see temperatures fall into the upper 60s overnight, but a slight warning trend is expected Sunday as temperatures return to near climatological normal for this time of year. The increasing low level moisture mentioned earlier will result in muggy overnight low temperatures later Sunday into early Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A 592 to 594 dm ridge aloft dominates the weather pattern for much of next week as it stretches across the state of Texas and into the Desert Southwest. Isolated convection remains possible during Monday afternoon for locations south of I-10 and east of I-37 where PWATs stay elevated up to near 2 inches with some lingering influence from the tropical disturbance advancing inland into Mexico from off the Bay of Campeche. The PWATS then decline into and through midweek with minimal rain chances prevailing. The ridge aloft could then weaken just slightly from late week into the start of next weekend to better allow a stray to isolated shower/storm chance with the sea breeze across the coastal plains. Otherwise, returning heat becomes the main weather story as the temperatures slowly rise and the dew points stay a bit elevated and struggle to mix out efficiently in response to the latest soil moisture levels from the recent rainfall across the region. We will closely monitor the heat indices as they push near or into Heat Advisory Criteria (105 to 110 degree range) across portions of the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR skies are projected for all sites through the TAF periods as high pressure aloft has become centered over TX. A mostly ESE wind direction is expected which is only going to allow for a slight inland push of higher dew points. This gradient of higher dew points will need to be tracked this evening in case light fog or low cigs need to be considered in future updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 94 75 95 / 0 10 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 98 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 94 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 93 73 95 / 0 10 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 92 75 94 / 0 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 94 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 73 95 77 97 / 0 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...18 Aviation...18