Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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927 FXUS64 KEWX 212320 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Upper air analysis this morning showed a high centered over TN with a ridge axis extending back over TX into northern Mexico. High pressure at the center is centered over northeastern TX and winds across our CWA were mostly from the east. Temperatures this afternoon are mostly around five degrees higher than 24 hours ago. Dewpoints are a couple of degrees lower due to a little better mixing this afternoon. There are isolated showers moving from east to west from the Coastal Plains to the western Edwards Plateau. This activity should continue until around sunset. The upper ridge will push back toward the west through this period. This will suppress most convection except across the southern tier of our CWA. Any convection will be diurnally driven and showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon. A little less cloudiness tonight will allow temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than they were this morning. High temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than today getting back to near normal. Not much change Saturday night with lows unchanged from tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The outer influence of Tropical Disturbance Two (currently in the Bay of Campeche) and whatever it may develop into (60 percent chance of a tropical depression or stronger in the next seven days) will bring slightly higher chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly along and south of U.S. 90. This influence will wane after Sunday as the system dissipates in north central Mexico. The rest of next week is a return to hot and humid conditions, resulting in high heat indices. Actual temperatures will creep up from the mid 90s to upper 90s to lower 100s, and heat index values will routinely top out in the 105-110 range during the late morning through early evening hours Monday through next Thursday. Thus we expect Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will be needed daily. Even though it`s beyond our forecast period, the heat will continue into next weekend, followed by some hope for slightly cooler conditions and rain chances as easterly low-level flow from the Gulf picks up as the upper level ridge drifts west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 After a brief chance for VCTS through 02Z, we should see diurnal heating wane and storms dissipate. Expect winds to go nearly calm and MVFR CIGS to develop by 07-10Z at all sites. There is a brief window of opportunity for IFR CIGS at SAT and SSF between 10-13Z so a TEMPO group has been utilized. By late morning, we should see VFR CIGS return at all sites Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 93 72 94 / 10 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 92 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 94 77 97 / 20 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 93 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 91 72 93 / 10 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 92 73 93 / 10 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 74 93 74 94 / 10 10 0 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...Zeitler Aviation...MMM