Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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350 FXUS64 KEWX 162330 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 An omega block pattern will remain in place from the short term period and beyond with the mid-level ridging portion of this block pattern remaining settled atop the state of Texas. Above average temperatures continue as a result with perhaps more daily record high temperatures being approached. See the climate section below for more details. While the rain chances remain very limited, a residual but decaying surface boundary that extends from the Hill Country eastward into portions of the Coastal Plains may be able to kick off a few stray showers both this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. I have elected to add a 10 percent mention for a rain shower in the most favored corridor. Southern Maverick into Dimmit County could also see the opportunity for a spotty shower this afternoon in association with a tongue of higher residual moisture that remains wedged up along the Rio Grande after the effects from the leftover mid-level energy and moisture from recent Tropical Storm Ileana in the Eastern Pacific. The moisture levels lower back towards normal along the Rio Grande into Tuesday and should keep rain chances out of the forecast there. Otherwise, a light flow maintains through the period under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mid-level ridging will start to overtake South Central Texas by mid to late week, setting the stage for continued hot and dry conditions. Highs each day will routinely climb into the mid to upper 90s along with mornings in the 70s through Saturday. A trough over the western CONUS will begin moving eastward this weekend, approaching the Texas Panhandle by late Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms look to stay north of our area with this storm system, but there is an off chance that is could push a surface cold front into the Hill Country as soon as next Sunday or Monday. This could help to flatten the ridging in place and bring slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some increased rain chances to our region by early next week. For now, keep cranking that A.C. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Showers along the Rio Grande should diminish in the next couple hours with winds becoming less shifty and gusty. Light east to southeast winds will prevail for much of the remainder of the TAF periods with a few more gusts possible in the afternoon at DRT Monday. No MVFR cigs are projected through the period; just a few midday and afternoon cumulus clouds will return Monday and no rain in sight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Record High Temperatures Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Austin Bergstrom....99 (2019*)...99 (2005*)...100 (2019) Austin Camp Mabry..101 (2019)....99 (2021)....101 (2019) Del Rio............101 (1997)...103 (2021).....99 (2021*) San Antonio.........99 (1954)....98 (1997)....104 (2019) * denotes previous years && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 99 75 98 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 98 74 97 / 10 10 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 98 74 98 / 10 10 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 95 72 95 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 78 97 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 97 74 95 / 10 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 97 73 96 / 10 10 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 97 74 95 / 10 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 98 76 97 / 20 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 98 76 98 / 10 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...18