835
FXUS64 KEWX 240610 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
110 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level trough in the middle of the country has pushed the
subtropical ridge to the south and the 500mb flow is from the west-
southwest. A surface cold front has made it into our northern area
and is stretched from Temple to Rocksprings to the Big Bend.
Temperatures behind the front are in the 60s and 70s while on the
warm side they are in the 80s and 90s. The front seems to have lost
momentum, and we expect it to stall near where it currently is. It
is not producing much lift with only isolated showers in the
vicinity. The upper trough will push a little farther south tonight
adding better lift near the surface boundary. This will bring better
chances for showers and thunderstorms starting after midnight.
Better rain chances will progress from north to south through the
night and tomorrow. The better chances will be over the eastern half
of the area where there will be deeper moisture. The upper trough
will dig farther southeast Tuesday night and there will be lingering
low chances for rain across our CWA. Temperatures will be divided by
the front with cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the
south. Time-wise there won`t be much change. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today and lows both nights will be around the same.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Lingering showers behind a southward advancing cold front can be
expected through the day Wednesday. Per the latest 12Z run of the NBM
and NAM12km, the frontal boundary should be through all of South
Central Texas by 18Z Wednesday. Surface high pressure is expected to
settle into Central Texas on Thursday, setting up a couple of much
nicer days in the area. Highs will still be near normal, but humidity
will be much lower and more comfortable. As it stands, it doesn`t
appear as if dewpoints above 65 will be returning anytime soon.
Despite lower dewpoints, that will allow the atmosphere to mix out
quicker each day, resulting in highs remaining in the upper 80s to
around 90 through the weekend into early next week. With this pattern
change, expect seasonably mild and dry days through the end of
September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Clouds are slowly on the increase across the region, but bases are
above MVFR. We could still see some MVFR cigs develop toward sunrise
and have kept this in the forecast for the I-35 sites. We will also
monitor for -SHRA development this morning as a few attempts are
noted on area radars. Conditions should improve back to VFR after
16Z given fairly shallow moisture in the lower levels. With afternoon
heating, some convection may develop across the I-35 sites. For now,
we will address the situation with a PROB30 group for TSRA for the
I-35 sites during the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  70  91  66 /  40  30  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  69  92  66 /  40  30  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  71  94  66 /  40  30  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  68  87  62 /  30  30  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  75  96  68 /  10  20  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  68  89  63 /  30  30  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  71  94  66 /  30  20  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  68  92  65 /  40  30  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  69  90  65 /  30  30  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  73  93  69 /  30  30  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  74  94  70 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Platt