343
FXUS64 KEWX 141718 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Upper level ridging builds in from the west today with this feature
remaining over the area through Saturday. Dry weather is expected
with some areas of low cloud cover each morning becoming more
scattered during the afternoons. Afternoon highs today and Saturday
are generally in the 90s everywhere except along the Rio Grande and
over the Rio Grande Plains where triple digit temperatures are
forecast. Afternoon dewpoints fall into the upper 50s and 60s each
day which should keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria.
Overall, quiet and warm in the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The Subtropical Ridge centers over the Southeastern States on Sunday
and remains there early next week. A plume of tropical moisture
approaches the Texas coast on Sunday allowing for a few showers and
thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains Sunday afternoon. The plume
works its way farther inland early next week with showers and
thunderstorms spreading to the I-35 corridor by Tuesday. The Ridge
then builds back over Texas mid to late week forcing the plume
toward the west with showers and thunderstorms spreading to the Rio
Grande on Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to show potential
for development of a tropical system with NHC indicating a 40%
chance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models maintain consensus
on a westward movement into and across Mexico. This would allow for
some enhancement in rainfall especially over the Coastal Plains to
the southern Rio Grande Plains. Although, direct wind impacts are
currently expected to be well south of our area, gusty winds are
possible in the stronger storms. Above normal high temperatures on
Sunday will gradually fall to below normal by mid week due to the
clouds and rain.

Beyond, this forecast period, models are showing the potential for
another tropical system for the following weekend. Stay tuned to the
latest forecasts on these potential systems. Be prepared for a busy
tropical season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Widespread cu field early this afternoon at all sites with the
exception being DRT. Expect VFR cigs and winds out of the east to
east-southeast through the period. Some MVFR cigs could develop at
SAT and SSF around 12-14Z Saturday, so a TEMPO group has been
utilized there. Otherwise, VFR expected at all sites through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  96  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 103  79 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  98  76  99 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...MMM