700
FXUS64 KEWX 220521
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper air analysis this morning showed a high centered over TN with
a ridge axis extending back over TX into northern Mexico. High
pressure at the center is centered over northeastern TX and winds
across our CWA were mostly from the east. Temperatures this
afternoon are mostly around five degrees higher than 24 hours ago.
Dewpoints are a couple of degrees lower due to a little better mixing
this afternoon. There are isolated showers moving from east to west
from the Coastal Plains to the western Edwards Plateau. This
activity should continue until around sunset. The upper ridge will
push back toward the west through this period. This  will suppress
most convection except across the southern tier of our CWA. Any
convection will be diurnally driven and showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon. A little less cloudiness
tonight will allow temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than they
were this morning. High temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees
warmer than today getting back to near normal. Not much change
Saturday night with lows unchanged from tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The outer influence of Tropical Disturbance Two (currently in the
Bay of Campeche) and whatever it may develop into (60 percent chance
of a tropical depression or stronger in the next seven days) will
bring slightly higher chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday, mainly along and south of U.S. 90. This influence will wane
after Sunday as the system dissipates in north central Mexico.

The rest of next week is a return to hot and humid conditions,
resulting in high heat indices. Actual temperatures will creep up
from the mid 90s to upper 90s to lower 100s, and heat index values
will routinely top out in the 105-110 range during the late morning
through early evening hours Monday through next Thursday. Thus we
expect Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will be needed
daily. Even though it`s beyond our forecast period, the heat will
continue into next weekend, followed by some hope for slightly cooler
conditions and rain chances as easterly low-level flow from the Gulf
picks up as the upper level ridge drifts west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR skies become MVFR CIGs overnight with brief IFR early Saturday
morning. Then, mixing will return skies to VFR by midday through
Saturday night. Southeasterly winds 10 KTs or less prevail with a
few higher gusts possible on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  96  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  95  75  95 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  94  75  95 /   0  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  97  79  99 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  95  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  93  76  94 /   0  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  93  74  94 /   0  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  92  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  93  77  94 /   0  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  94  77  94 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...76
Aviation...04