676
FXUS64 KEWX 161833
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
133 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Nocturnal stratus has scattered out across South-Central Texas this
afternoon and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies continue at the
present time. We saw a few streamer showers in the Coastal Plains
this morning and that activity has mostly dwindled as well.
South/Southeast winds will be breezy at times today into the evening
hours. Otherwise, highs later today will top out in the middle 90s
to near 103 degrees out west. Another round of nocturnal stratus is
expected overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. This will allow
for low temperatures to remain on the warmer side, bottoming out in
the middle to upper 70s for most locations.

Moisture levels tomorrow morning into the afternoon will be higher
and should see a slightly higher coverage of the streamer showers for
areas mainly east of the I35 corridor tomorrow morning into the
afternoon. Will show some 20-50 PoPs out there. Most of the activity
will likely be showers but can`t rule out a thunderstorm as well.
Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 90s in the east and up into the
100-103 degree range out west. Most if not all the rain activity will
diminish by sunset leaving a mostly dry night tomorrow night with
lows back in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Focus for the long term remains on tropical influences and the low
level of confidence in the impacts to the local area. The latest
information from NHC shows a 30% chance of formation over the next
48 hours, and a 70% chance of formation over the next 7 days.

Initial surge of moisture and periphery shortwaves of the primary
disturbance will bring shower and thunderstorm chances into the
service area generally along and south of I-35 on Tuesday. Chances
spread area wide Wednesday through Friday as the disturbance moves
further inland followed by upper level troughing. Variations in
system evolution and track persist in the forecast which will have
significant impacts on possible rainfall amounts.

What does this mean for rainfall? Long story short, still to early
for specifics given the wide range of possibilities. The operational
GFS has been a proponent of the higher end of storm totals while the
ECMWF has shown to be more on the lower end of totals. 12z GFS did
come down a fair bit from the 06z run concerning storm totals but
remains higher than the ECMWF. 12z GEFS probability of greater than 2
inches shows a greater than 55% chance for storm total amounts to be
greater than 2" for the majority of the area with the Coastal Plains
having a 70% or greater chance. Will also mention that areas east of
HWY 281 were shown to have around a 3 in 10 chance of seeing storm
total amounts of greater than 5 inches. So there is a decent chance
we get some much needed rain to areas that severely need it, and it`s
not off the table that this rainfall could result in flooding and
flash flooding for areas that have the chances for the higher totals.
Not surprising, given this, that WPC has much of the area in a
Slight Risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on days 4 and 5.

River wise, the western rivers desperately need the rainfall. 18z
HEFS guidance shows a mixture of Action stage to Minor Flood stage
primarily along and south of I-35. Will mention that some locations
also show a less than 10% chance of exceedance for Moderate Flood
stage primarily for the Coastal Plain counties which could be in play
if we see some of the higher end rainfall totals of the deterministic
models.

Over next weekend, we could see some additional rainfall chances
across the Coastal Plains due to weak waves moving onshore from the
Gulf. This additional rainfall could prolong any ongoing river
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions have returned to the terminals this afternoon with VFR
expected through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening.
South/southeast winds will be slightly breezy at times through the
period. Another round of MVFR ceilings is expected late tonight with
the return of nocturnal stratus. Low chances for rain should
primarily remain southeast of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  77  94  77 /  10   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  76  94  76 /  10   0  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  95  77 /  20   0  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  75  92  75 /  10   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  80 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  75  93  75 /  10   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  76  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  75  93  75 /  20   0  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  76  91  76 /  10   0  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  78  96  77 /  20   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  78  97  78 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...36
Aviation...29