307
FXUS64 KEWX 241823
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
123 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The stalled frontal boundary positioned over the region will re-
activate with isolated to scattered convection from later this
afternoon through this evening across primarily the eastern 2/3rds
of the CWA. The combination of pooling instability with daytime
highs peaking in the 90s combined with increased bulk shear to
around 30-35 knots may be just enough to yield a stronger cell or
two with potential of gusts of 40+ mph, small hail, and locally
heavy downpours. Activity should wane towards and beyond the
midnight hour. Overnight lows remain on the milder side through
tonight ranging from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the
low to mid 70s elsewhere.

An upper level low pressure system moving across the Midwest into
the Tennessee valley helps to steer Tropical Storm Helene toward
Florida but will also propel a second cold front across South-
Central Texas through Wednesday morning. This will help to focus
rain chances towards the CRP CWA and into the far eastern coastal
plains on Wednesday. The rest of the region looks to remain rain
free with the arrival of drier air with moderate to breezy north
winds in wake of the front. Gusts of 25+ mph could be possible
Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs trend in the 80s across the
northern half of the CWA behind the front while 90s still remain
common during Wednesday afternoon across the southern half of the
CWA. Wednesday night will be more refreshing with clearing skies
with the drier post-frontal air. Overnight lows in the 50s are
expected for the Hill Country while 60s trend elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A surface high will settle in over the northern part of the state on
Thursday, setting up a beautiful day across South Central Texas.
Comfortable humidity and plenty of sunshine can be expected along
with highs in the 80s. Tranquil weather will be the norm through the
weekend as we sit under northerly flow aloft. A large, upper level
low will absorb the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene on Friday,
and the upper low will meander over the southeastern CONUS through
the weekend. Our region will be between high pressure to the east and
low pressure to the west, so it`s not out of the realm of possibility
that a surge or two of slightly cooler and drier air can move
southward into our region, but for now, the forecast calls for dry
and seasonable conditions through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR flight conditions will primarily prevail throughout the TAF
period. However, later this afternoon through the evening, isolated
to scattered convection will develop across central and eastern areas
of South-Central Texas. Added VCTS at KAUS and KSAT for this chance
and VCSH at KSSF. Any heavier cells may result in gusty winds and
temporary restriction in flight categories. Any activity should
dissipate towards and after the midnight hour. Winds today remain
light and could be variable/shifty at times. A reinforcing cold
front arrives Wednesday morning and this will push any rain/storm
chances into Sunday southward towards the Corpus Christi CWA. North
winds become a bit breezy behind the front through Wednesday
afternoon at the 30 hour TAF sites (KAUS and KSAT) with winds into
the 12 to 15 knot range with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  89  66  88 /  30  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  90  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  65  91 /  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  84  62  86 /  20  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  86  63  86 /  20  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  94  64  90 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  91  64  89 /  30  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  89  66  88 /  30  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  93  67  89 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  69  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Brady