033
FXUS64 KEWX 242345
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The stalled frontal boundary positioned over the region will re-
activate with isolated to scattered convection from later this
afternoon through this evening across primarily the eastern 2/3rds
of the CWA. The combination of pooling instability with daytime
highs peaking in the 90s combined with increased bulk shear to
around 30-35 knots may be just enough to yield a stronger cell or
two with potential of gusts of 40+ mph, small hail, and locally
heavy downpours. Activity should wane towards and beyond the
midnight hour. Overnight lows remain on the milder side through
tonight ranging from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the
low to mid 70s elsewhere.

An upper level low pressure system moving across the Midwest into
the Tennessee valley helps to steer Tropical Storm Helene toward
Florida but will also propel a second cold front across South-
Central Texas through Wednesday morning. This will help to focus
rain chances towards the CRP CWA and into the far eastern coastal
plains on Wednesday. The rest of the region looks to remain rain
free with the arrival of drier air with moderate to breezy north
winds in wake of the front. Gusts of 25+ mph could be possible
Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs trend in the 80s across the
northern half of the CWA behind the front while 90s still remain
common during Wednesday afternoon across the southern half of the
CWA. Wednesday night will be more refreshing with clearing skies
with the drier post-frontal air. Overnight lows in the 50s are
expected for the Hill Country while 60s trend elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A surface high will settle in over the northern part of the state on
Thursday, setting up a beautiful day across South Central Texas.
Comfortable humidity and plenty of sunshine can be expected along
with highs in the 80s. Tranquil weather will be the norm through the
weekend as we sit under northerly flow aloft. A large, upper level
low will absorb the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene on Friday,
and the upper low will meander over the southeastern CONUS through
the weekend. Our region will be between high pressure to the east and
low pressure to the west, so it`s not out of the realm of possibility
that a surge or two of slightly cooler and drier air can move
southward into our region, but for now, the forecast calls for dry
and seasonable conditions through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected over the next 36 hours. The
exception is fog possible across the Coastal Plains 09Z-14Z
Wednesday, producing IFR visibilities. This fog should not impact
SAT or AUS. The other exception is in any SHRA/TSRA activity this
evening. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA activity will be
possible along and north of a ERV-SAT-T20 line through around 05Z.
Winds generally becoming variable around 5KT or less tonight, except
in and near any evening SHRA/TSRA activity, where gusty wind speeds
and erratic wind directions will be possible. A cold front will
move through the area late morning through the early afternoon on
Wednesday. A N wind will develop behind the front, with some gusts
20-25KT possible through portions of the Hill Country and I-35
corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  89  66  88 /  30  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  90  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  65  91 /  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  84  62  86 /  20  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  86  63  86 /  20  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  94  64  90 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  91  64  89 /  30  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  89  66  88 /  30  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  93  67  89 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  69  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...76