330
FXUS62 KFFC 261841
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A dry and hot day is ongoing with mid-afternoon temperatures well
into the upper 90s and 100s. Fortunately, dewpoints remain anchored
in the 50s across the majority of the area, preventing any extreme
heat index readings this afternoon. With temperatures running 2-3
degrees above forecast by midday, highs were adjusted slightly
upward for this afternoon, putting record daily high temperatures
within reach at Atlanta and Macon. The vast majority of us will
remain parched again today with only a rogue shower or thunderstorm
possible through this evening given our dry and capped atmosphere.

Some welcome changes are on the way for Thursday, however. A
shortwave currently approaching the Tennessee Valley will shift
eastward by Thursday morning into our area, setting the stage for
much better rain chances than we`ve seen in a while. Moisture will
surge substantially in advance of this feature with PWATs rapidly
increasing from current ~1" to over 2" by tomorrow morning. Some
showers and perhaps diminishing thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Thursday morning with PoPs increasing first across west/northwest
Georgia. Further development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected by early afternoon as heating increases. Additionally,
any MCV feature from earlier convection (as hinted by CAMs) would
also provide further impetus for diurnally enhanced development. For
this reason, high end chance to low end likely PoPs are being
advertised on Thursday afternoon. No substantial severe risk is
anticipated with forecast SBCAPE generally <1500 J/kg and weak lapse
rates.

More widespread cloud cover and convection will hold high
temperatures to much more manageable levels on Thursday. Highs will
be much closer to seasonal norms, generally in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with the 100s fortunately eliminated for the time
being.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

On the heels of a mid lvl shortwave crossing the area (Thursday),
the upr high will quickly attempt to re-assert itself across the
Southern Plains/Southeast region. A return to more typical humidity
values will increase the heat risk through the weekend with heat
indices expected to be in the 105-110F range for much of the area
south/east of I-85 by Sunday. In addition to the heat/humidity, the
chance for storms will increase by Sunday as a weakness in the upr
ridge could send some energy across the area to aid in convective
development.

Drier air attempts to build in from the NW early next week with the
threat for scattered storms remaining across much of central GA. The
center of the upr high meanders back toward the SE region by mid
week maintaining a hot pattern across the area. Temperatures by the
middle of the week heading into 4th of July could be running 5-10F
degrees above normal.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions will persist into tonight with FEW/SCT cu in the
6-9 kft range. Some potential for at least sct MVFR will increase
after 12-15Z Thursday, particularly for ATL area sites. SHRA
potential also increases after 12Z with SCT SHRA/TSRA coverage
expected to be highest after 18Z Thursday. Winds will remain W to
SW through the period at 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on Thursday morning cigs and precip timing
Thursday.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  92  71  92 /  10  50  40  50
Atlanta         75  89  74  92 /  20  60  30  40
Blairsville     68  83  67  85 /  20  50  20  50
Cartersville    71  88  71  92 /  20  50  20  40
Columbus        75  89  74  93 /  20  60  50  50
Gainesville     75  88  72  89 /  20  50  30  50
Macon           74  92  72  94 /  10  60  40  50
Rome            73  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  40
Peachtree City  73  89  71  93 /  20  60  30  40
Vidalia         75  94  75  97 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...RW