Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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963 FXUS62 KFFC 031748 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 148 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms lingered longer than anticipated around the Atlanta metro area tonight. As of this writing, showers have become much more isolated. Due to the slow movement of the convection and the persistent redevelopment (mostly spurred by CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg and interactions of storm outflows), some locations between the E side of Atlanta and Loganville received between 1 and 3 inches with isolated spots receiving over 4 inches. An upper trough extending from the mid-Atlantic states to the SE coast of FL will shift farther E today as a narrow ridge builds from the SE GA coast to the E Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will become more diurnally driven today, with the best chances along and S of the I-20 corridor. MUCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg will continue, but shear will be minimal. As a result, severe storms are not anticipated. However, slow storm motion may lead to localized higher rainfall totals. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in the NE to near 90 SE of Macon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually wind down Monday night with low temperatures ranging from near 60 in the NE to the upper 60s across the S. A weak shortwave approaching from the NW will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday, with likely PoPs from the Atlanta metro area N. A few strong storms will be possible in the NW portion of the state, but severe wx is not anticipated. High temperatures will be similar to today`s highs. /SEC && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - Tuesday night through Thursday: Relatively weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will start off the long- term period. Perturbations in the flow, diurnal heating/ample instability, and PWAT of ~1.5" or greater will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. As is typical during the warm months, colliding outflow boundaries (and any upscale growth/organization due to perturbations aloft) could encourage showers and storms to persist well after sunset. Pinning down the timing/influence of any perturbations will be more of a short-term period challenge as they are tricky to forecast more than a couple days out. The potential for organized/widespread severe weather is quite low given a lack of well-defined forcing and little to no deep-layer shear. That said, as is the case most days with convection during the warm months, strong storms will be possible with localized damaging wind gusts, small hail, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. The QPF ranges from 0.10" to 0.20" across central Georgia and 0.25" to 0.75" across north Georgia. Localized rainfall totals of 1.0" or greater will be possible in the mountains, where orographic uplift could aid in precip efficiency. High temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside of the mountains. Low temps will be in the mid-60s to lower 70s. - Friday through the weekend: An upper-level ridge building in across the western two-thirds of the CONUS on Friday and associated high pressure will drive a cold front (said otherwise, the leading edge of a drier air mass) across the forecast area. After previous days of dew points in the 60s to lower 70s, dew points will fall into the 50s to lower 60s. Will need to keep an eye on both Saturday and Sunday given the northwest flow regime and the possibility of "ridge-rider" MCSs diving southward. Cooler overnight temps are expected this weekend, with Saturday morning low temps in the 50s across portions of north Georgia. Ample sunshine will keep high temps near climatology this weekend -- in the mid-80s to lower 90s. Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR to start TAF period. Airmass storms are beginning to develop and may impact TAF sites through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Challenge is overnight, where conditions may allow for continued development of TSRA into morning hours. However, if TSRA does not develop, rainfall from day could help produce low cigs/vsbys across airport. Given uncertainty, have wrapped low cig/vsby chances and TSRA chances into PROB30 in morning hours. Winds will be from SW through period and relatively light, 4-8 kts, going calm overnight, then picking up a little stronger Tuesday at 5-10 kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium convective timing, low morning cigs/vsby vs convection (see above). Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 86 66 88 / 40 70 60 60 Atlanta 69 86 69 89 / 40 70 60 50 Blairsville 61 80 63 81 / 30 70 70 70 Cartersville 66 86 66 88 / 40 70 60 60 Columbus 69 90 70 92 / 30 60 50 40 Gainesville 66 84 67 87 / 40 70 60 70 Macon 68 89 69 92 / 20 60 60 40 Rome 67 86 67 89 / 40 70 60 70 Peachtree City 67 87 68 90 / 40 70 60 50 Vidalia 69 91 70 93 / 20 60 50 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...Lusk