092
FXUS62 KFFC 222329
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The Southeast CONUS remains underneath a high pressure regime
aloft, with a mid level ridge extending from the northern Gulf of
Mexico towards New England. North and central Georgia will remain
underneath northwesterly flow aloft through the remainder of the
day into Monday. By Monday night, the ridge axis will clear the
forecast area to the east, with the mid level flow then shifting
to southwesterly. Surface high pressure underneath the ridge will
influence the sensible weather through the short term period. This
will be most notably apparent with the temperatures, with highs
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon forecast to rise into the
low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia.
Considering dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 60s, morning
lows will also remain quite balmy. Whether it be high or low
temperatures, they are expected to be 7-15 degrees warmer than
daily normals through the end of the period. Model guidance also
continues to indicate a weakness in the surface high pressure in
portions of north Georgia. This feature has allowed for isolated
showers and thunderstorms to develop to the north of the state
line, which could spread southward into the northern tier later
this afternoon. However, the organization of showers and
thunderstorms appears to be unlikely, and severe weather is thus
not expected. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in portions of far north Georgia once again tomorrow
within the northwesterly flow aloft.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Current high pressure over the southern CONUS is expected to dampen
beginning Monday when the low pressure system currently near the
four corners region lifts northeastward into the mid MS valley. As
it moves, an associated sfc level cold front will push into Tennessee
and north Georgia by Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will in
turn increase rain chances for north Georgia. As it pushes further
southward through Wednesday and Thursday the rain chances look to
increase along with the system. The EPS and GEFS are both indicating
marginal shear and sfc based CAPE values at this time, so while
there likely will be thunderstorms associated with these showers, it
will likely be isolated in nature. The risk for any widespread severe
weather remains low. Due to the relatively weak nature of the front
and marginal shear values, organized thunderstorms are not expected
and thus our QPF values remain mainly below 0.5" and will likely be
isolated/scattered in nature.

One positive of this, is the temperatures will start to decrease by
Wednesday into the mid 80s and then the low 80s to start off the
weekend. This will bring temps much closer to normal for this time
of year.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an area of low pressure
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the
western/central Gulf of Mexico. NHC is now carrying an 80% chance
for tropical development over the next 7 days. Current EPS and GEFS
ensemble forecast tracks are indicating that anywhere from the
Louisiana/MS coast line to Florida for any potential landfall at
this time although models are beginning to come together better.
Would like to see another run or two of consensus before
certainty increases on our end. Another factor coming into play
is how this troughing plays out over the eastern CONUS and how it
will help steer the system. Current rainfall totals have gone up
to around 3- 4" over the weekend but again with the uncertainty
this is highly subject to change. More information should come
together over the next couple of days although uncertainty still
remains.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions (FEW-BKN AOA 4000 ft AGL and
unrestricted visibility) will continue in the region through at
least 06Z Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur in
northern Georgia between 19Z Monday and 01Z Tuesday, but the
probability of brief impacts at any of the TAF sites is very low
(less than 10%). Light winds tonight (calm to 4 kt) will give way
to northwest or west winds between 3 and 8 kt from 15Z Monday and
03Z Tuesday.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF is high.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  93  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
Atlanta         71  92  73  91 /   0  10  10  10
Blairsville     64  85  64  84 /  10  40  30  50
Cartersville    68  93  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
Columbus        71  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     69  90  70  88 /  10  20  10  20
Macon           71  94  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
Rome            68  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  20
Peachtree City  68  92  70  91 /   0  10   0  10
Vidalia         71  92  72  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Albright