786
FXUS62 KFFC 160536
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
136 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

At a glance:

    - Hottest day of the year (so far) today

    - Isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow afternoon

The key player in the next few days` sensible weather is an
amplifying mid-level ridge gradually making its way eastward, taking
up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Heating and drying of our
presiding airmass under uninterrupted subsidence will be further
reinforced at the surface, where the western fringes of a retreating
surface high will blanket the area. The result of the aforementioned
features: impressive, though comparatively dry, heat through the
weekend. Today looks to be the hottest day of the year thus far,
with highs forecast to top out in the mid-to-upper 90s (aside from
northeast Georgia, which will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s to near
90). Sunday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the
low-to-mid 90s expected.

The saving grace of this setup will be low afternoon relative
humidities (in the 30-40% range), which will spare north and central
Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat Advisory
issuance. As it stands, heat index values look to top out in the 98-
102F degree range today, enough to cause heat-related illnesses in
sensitive/vulnerable populations, like children, the elderly, and
those without access to air conditioning. Tomorrow, with marginally
lower highs, heat index values look to remain outside of the triple
digits for most locales. In addition to the heat, a Code Orange air
quality alert is in effect for the Atlanta Metro this afternoon, due
primarily to smog/ozone. The moral of the story: despite lower
moisture precluding more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself
if planning on spending large parts of your weekend outdoors, and
always look before you lock.

This afternoon, due to weakness in flow near the surface and a
convergent boundary roughly bisecting the forecast area, low-end (15-
20%) chances for thunderstorms have been introduced for areas along
and south of I-85/north of Columbus and Macon during the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but ridging aloft -- and
associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective
initiation. Sunday, with a surface high sliding across New York
State and off the Eastern Seaboard and characteristic U-shaped
isobars banking up against the Appalachian mountains, north and
north central Georgia look primed for brief wedging. Aided by
isentropic lift over the "cool" (slightly less hot?) dome, cloud
coverage and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is likely to be
higher. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are
unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs
will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The warm temperatures are expected to continue through this week
as the high pressure dominates with mid level ridging also
dominating the pattern. There does remain the chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms although that chance is pretty low at
this point. Would not be surprised if thee is just enough
moisture return and enough differential heating to produce a stray
thunderstorm which could ultimately lead to a damaging wind gust.
With the moisture plume going into the lower MS valley and the
tropical moisture (currently 50% by NHC) expected to go into the
TX/LA border the pressure gradient could become tight enough over
central and western Georgia to give the area gusty winds through
Wednesday into Thursday. Other than that, there are some model
indications that precip chances could return into the weekend but
this is basing off any tropical moisture we get so this is highly
dependent.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Still some lingering
shra out there but not expected to bring impacts to any terminal.
Winds remain light and largely variable overnight due to a weak
boundary draped across North GA and sfc high to the north. TSRA
possible on Sunday afternoon as early as 18z -- will likely
introduce a TEMPO with the next TAF issuance. Outflows from any
storms that do develop may result in a brief period of VRB/erratic
winds. Winds will pick up around 14z at 4 to 9kts and will be out
of the SE.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Low to medium confidence on wind direction overnight.
Medium confidence on timing of thunder Sunday afternoon.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  91  68  89 /  30  10   0  10
Atlanta         74  92  71  90 /  20  20   0  10
Blairsville     67  86  65  84 /  30  30   0  10
Cartersville    72  93  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        74  94  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
Gainesville     72  89  70  87 /  20  20   0  10
Macon           72  94  69  92 /  20  10   0  10
Rome            74  94  72  92 /  20  20  10  10
Peachtree City  72  92  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
Vidalia         72  93  71  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...07