Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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730 FXUS62 KFFC 172329 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 729 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the short term, it almost a repeat of the past couple of days. The high pressure remains solidly in place over the area and is expected to dominate through the middle of the week at least. Rain chances will remain confined to the northeast GA mountains mainly as heating and terrain influence gives just enough lift and energy for a couple of isolated showers/thunderstorms to form. Any of these storms could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds as the main threats. Heat will be the other story for the short term. Temps up to 90-95 can be expected today and tomorrow around 90. Fortunately the dewpoints will be lower with the drier air over the area, which in turn means the heat indices will stay right around the actual temperature. Still take precaution when outside though and check on those who may not have access to AC. Through tomorrow expecting a cumulus field to form over the state during peak heating hours with winds also gusting up to 20 mph at times due to mixing. OVerall though, a pretty benign forecast through Tuesday! Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Anomalous big 500mb ridge becomes well established and anchored over the Mid Atlantic with extension SW across the SE states into the MS Valley region to start the extended period. Thankfully the 700mb ridge will be collocated and aid in providing a deep easterly fetch, albeit dry, across the SE states. As such, models suggesting overall layer RH values will be low resulting in continued low pops through Friday. By Friday, upper ridge begins to break down and "fill" at the same time a tropical wave currently highlighted in the NHC tropical outlooks as a 30% probability of TC formation begins to approach the SE coastline. Much uncertainty in the models over this wave as it is yet to form in the area north of PR, however, models do indicate that at least an open wave is likely to traverse westward under the large east coast ridge and at a minimum bring a surge in deeper/tropical moisture into the vicinity. NBM pops follow suit with a general increase through the weekend as the members supporting the tropical system/moisture influence the forecast pops as such. Have no reason to disagree given the uncertainty in the wave, its ultimate intensity and its ultimate trajectory. Given the drier environment it finds itself in away from the gravy train across the Caribbean and into the GOM/SE TX, it will have a harder time both developing and becoming a larger circulation. Regardless..there remains a range of possibilities from an open wave to a TC approaching the SE coastline by the weekend, which are all pretty well covered by the global models and their ensembles which overall tend to favor the weaker solns. Ridge begins to break down through the weekend and fill with more low and mid level moisture resulting in more climo pops. Temp forecast from the models for the weekend fall in line with the rest of the forecast as lower confidence as a result of the mixed model solutions on the tropical system, shower/tstorm coverage and clouds. 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions with no aviation weather impacts expected. Some isold -SHRA this evenign will dissipate around 02Z. Sfc winds generally ESE 3-6kts overnight becoming E 10-13kts with some gusts 20-22kts after 16Z. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 89 66 87 / 10 0 0 0 Atlanta 71 90 71 88 / 20 0 0 0 Blairsville 66 83 63 82 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 70 90 70 89 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 71 92 72 90 / 20 0 0 0 Gainesville 70 87 68 85 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 68 92 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 Rome 73 91 71 90 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 69 91 68 89 / 20 0 0 0 Vidalia 69 92 69 90 / 0 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...SNELSON