929
FXUS63 KFGF 180804
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
304 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms for most of
  the FA this afternoon and evening, including the potential
  for supercells.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...Synopsis...

This will be an abbreviated discussion this morning due to
ongoing convection and backing up WFO Bismarck.

...Severe potential this afternoon and evening..

The new SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook is a bit different than it
was at this time yesterday. It now covers the far eastern FA
with a Level 1 out of 5 risk too, and leaves out the western
Devils Lake region down through areas west of the Valley City.
There is a Level 2 out of 5 risk for portions of the far
southern Red River Valley, which clips portions of Richland/
Wilkin and Otter Tail and all of Grant County.

To start, there are always questions with what happens after the
morning convection (ie residual boundaries or outflow, cloud
trends, etc.). As has been the case for quite a few days in a
row now, there is plenty of moisture. Surface dewpoints may get
close to 70 degrees this afternoon, with precipitable water
values close to 2 inches. That is pretty amazing for mid
September! The morning clouds should give way to some sunshine,
which will lead to building instability by late morning into
the afternoon. Most CAMs seem to indicate a potential hour or
two break between the ending morning convection and re-
developing late morning and afternoon convection.

There was quite a bit of rainfall across the northern FA the
other day, so if any storms train across those areas today,
they could be susceptible to additional flooding. Pretty hard to
nail down where that might be at this point, so will just keep
that in mind for now. The low level jet never really goes away
today, but does seem to fluctuate in intensity. Don`t see a
consistent focus area, but it will definitely keep the moisture
feed coming northward. The HREF develops some more consistent UH
tracks by mid to late afternoon along the RRV, continuing into
the early to mid evening east of the RRV. So it should be
another busy day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Chances for isolated thunder have become slightly higher
confidence in at least more western areas (DVL, FAR, GFK) this
morning from 07z to 13z with VCSH outside of the general
thunder. Winds look to pick up for most areas around sunrise
then become a predominate southerly wind 20G30kt. LIFR/VLIFR in
DVL with low stratus creating nuisance aviation impacts
otherwise this should clear by 10z with increasing winds and
thus mixing by the morning hours.

KTVF still holds an AMD NOT SKED due to AWOS outage at the
site.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...TT