685
FXUS63 KFGF 070445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds to 50 mph will continue this afternoon. The
  probability for severe winds is low (10% chance of >50 knots)

- Frequent precipitation chances arise through next week, but
  the probability for severe weather is low through Sunday.
  Predictability is low after that for severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Very quiet with only a few lingering clouds and winds continuing
to drop. Some spots already dropping below 50, while others have
been staying in the low 60s. Only minor tweaks to what we had
going.

UPDATE
Issued at 941 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Adjusted cloud cover a bit as some stratus lingers near Lake of
the Woods, but otherwise pretty quiet with winds coming down.
Let the wind advisory expire at 01Z. With the decreasing clouds
and lighter winds, temps seem on track to dip into the 40s.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Winds are starting to slowly come down, although still getting
frequent gusts to 40 mph in the advisory area. Should continue
to see the pressure gradient relax and mixing decrease as the
evening progresses. The blowing dust that is being carried into
portions of southeastern ND into the southern RRV this afternoon
will start to settle down also. Decreasing clouds and fairly
quiet tonight after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...Synopsis...

Surface analysis indicates a broad surface inverted ridge across
the intermountain west with a large surface low over eastern
Ontario. This has created a very tight pressure gradient over
the northern plains and continues to fuel our ongoing wind
issues.

The upper flow pattern is high confidence through Sunday and
favors an upper closed low that will propagate southward into
broad upper ridging across the CONUS. Confidence is low in the
evolution of this closed upper low and how long it lingers
across the area, so predictability after Sunday is low. Still,
this low should induce frequent chances at showers and
thunderstorms, but the probability for organized severe
thunderstorms is low due to instability isolated to the central
plains and south.

...GUSTY WINDS...

Gusty winds this afternoon will continue through the remainder
of the day before we see improvements this evening. Observations
thus far have indicated gusty winds approaching 50-55 mph. At
this point, this appears to be the expected ceiling of today
because winds are primarily pressure gradient induced and this
pressure gradient is not expected to intensify much further.
Still, there is a low chance (10%) for wind gusts exceeding 58
mph. At this time, given the low confidence in severe winds
arising, the wind advisory will continue to be held. As the
tight pressure gradient pushes eastward, wind speeds will
diminish.

...PRECIPITATION/SEVERE CHANCES...

Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Sunday, but significant impacts are unlikely to develop.
The upper flow pattern keeps the strongest PW and CAPE values
well to our south, so the probability for organized severe
convection is low. Additionally, thunderstorm chances will also
be low as a result. Towards next week, with the upper flow
pattern diverging significantly on ensemble guidance,
predictability for severe convection is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions with mid clouds moving through. Some precip
chances late in the period but not confident enough to put into
TAFs at this point. Winds light and variable or westerly will
begin to pick up from the northwest again by tomorrow afternoon,
then decrease again after sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...JR