438
FXUS63 KFGF 191758
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather expected over the next seven days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The frontal zone extends from Lake of the Woods through Beltrami
and south with the most unstable airmass already shifted farther
east. There is still a narrow area of unstable air (and
weakening CIN) but trends on Satellite indicate our window is
closing for deep/severe convection, and all current CAMs now
align with this idea. The cold pool behind the front is
supporting a shallow CU layer with sprinkles/light showers
developing closer to the mid/upper low as expected. General
forecast is on track. though some adjustments to sky/PoPs were
necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The cold front in northwest MN is actively pushing east with
stratus ahead of the immediate frontal zone. As any severe
threat today will be along/ahead of this front, the presence of
stratus would only delay initiation in our east, and by time it
breaks up the front is timed to be out of our area, lowering
confidence in deep/severe convection in our area. If it breaks
up sooner and the front slows down there is still a narrow early
afternoon window, but CAM trends do not currently support this.
Otherwise, showers and non severe convection chances remain
mainly in the Devils Lake basin through the afternoon (closer
to the mid level circulation in Canada).

UPDATE
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Some weak showers have developed just west of Devils Lake near
Harvey, ND. Looking at observations in the surrounding area it
looks like nothing is hitting the ground. Some mid-level clouds
are moving through the area ahead of the low for some morning
cloudy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Synopsis...

An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast
into the Manitoba province today. As the departing low moves
northeast it leaves an area of divergence to possibly produce
showers along the Canadian border. Another shortwave creates more
precipitation chances through the Sunday morning.

Today: The departing low occludes as it starts to push northeast.
This will push the front closer to the arrowhead and leave North
Dakota fairly stable behind this front. However, there is a pocket
of moisture in the northern valley that may create some light
showers this afternoon and evening thanks to the overlapping area of
divergence near the Canadian border as this low pressure peels off.
These showers should dissipate as the sun goes down and sets for the
day. The pressure gradient will just be tight enough to give us some
gusty winds up to 30 mph if we mix up to the 925/850mb level tapping
into those 25 knot winds.

Friday and through the weekend: A brief period of drying will occur
during the day Friday. The atmosphere will remain fairly stable as
the Northern Plains enters a brief dry westerly flow. However,
another shortwave starts to move in early Saturday morning and give
us precipitation for Saturday with the most likely area being West
central Minnesota. rainfall amounts currently look light but that
could change slightly for better or worse in the next models runs as
the amount of dry air from Friday`s westerly pattern is better
analyzed. Sunday and Monday look dry as the Northern plains
transition between a Northern and Westerly flow thanks to a low
pressure system travels through the Central US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

CU is forming behind the cold front that has already pushed
through northwest MN (east of KBJI) ranging from 2800-6000 FT
agl, with VFR generally prevailing. There may still be brief
dips into MVFR (mainly at KDVL) through the afternoon, but this
shouldn`t prevail. Light showers are developing upstream of
KDVL in northwest ND on the base of the mid level low in Canada
and guidance supports VCSH mention at that TAF site during the
afternoon (lower confidence at other eastern ND/northwest MN
sites). Gusty winds are expected in the afternoon, with gusts
ending at sunset (loss of daytime mixing).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM/DJR
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...DJR