463
FXUS63 KFGF 241914
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
214 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper trough that brought last night`s rain continues to push
east across MN, splitting into a closed low over IA and a more
northern branch over the arrowhead. Meanwhile, upper ridging
continues to amplify over the Rockies, and will push into the
Plains late tonight and into tomorrow. Between the ridge and the
southward sinking IA low the pattern becomes rather blocky and
doesn`t change much through the rest of the work week.
Temperatures warming back to up well above late September
averages will be the primary outcome, with highs again topping
80 degrees in several locations by Wednesday.

Upper level riding will continue into Thursday. Breezy conditions
are anticipated as the pressure gradient tightens and a 30 to 40
knot 850 mb jet propagates through the FA. With relative humidity
values between 30 and 40 percent, fire weather is worth monitoring,
but not a concern as of right now.

Beyond Thursday, ridging slowly breaks down as the rex block pattern
over the central and eastern US wanes. An approaching trough late
Sunday into Monday will finally drop temperatures back to more
seasonal values, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A few
showers associated with the trough passage are forecasted Monday
into Tuesday. POPs currently are under 20 percent, which given the
uncertainty of the placement and intensity of the axis of forcing,
is not surprising.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mostly VFR conditions although some MVFR cumulus developed over
KBJI just as the 18Z TAFs were going out. Think they will hang
around for a few hours before scattering out and going VFR like
the rest of the TAF sites. Light west to northwest winds around
8 to 11 kts will continue through sunset, then become light and
variable after 00Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR/Rafferty
AVIATION...JR