574
FXUS65 KFGZ 241143
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
443 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue
through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over
eastern Arizona towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure continues to wobble around the
southwest, and with moisture still in place, chances for showers
and thunderstorms remain.

00Z HREF guidance shows the greatest instability this afternoon
along and south of the Mogollon Rim, where around 500-1000 J/Kg of
surface-based CAPE are forecast. Thus, more scattered coverage of
storms is expected over these areas with only isolated coverage
expected elsewhere. Flash flooding looks to be the primary threat
with any storms, as precipitable water values remain around 0.80-
1.40 inches and storm motions of around 5-10 kts. A few stronger
storms over the higher terrain may be possible, but the threat for
any severe weather is limited.

Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to continue through much of the week, as the
monsoonal high remains in place in the southwest. Flash flooding
will continue to be a threat each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Moisture begins to wain as a a weak trough
sweeps to the north of Arizona. Drier conditions look to ensue for
Friday and into much of the weekend. However, the return of dry
conditions looks to be short-lived, with moisture slowly creeping
back northward. Thus, chances for isolated showers and storms
likely return by the end of the weekend for eastern Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 24/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Expect mostly
VFR conditions through the period, excluding brief periods this
afternoon and evening where TS and SHRA will result in reduced
visibilities and lowered ceilings. Gusty, erratic winds are
expected near thunderstorms. Outside of storms, winds will be
generally SW 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/12Z through Thursday 27/12Z...Daily
afternoon/evening TS and SHRA chances will persist, resulting in
brief, sporadic chances for sub VFR conditions. W-SW winds during
the day will persist, outside of thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are once again expected today and Tuesday. Afternoon
winds will likely become influenced by outflows. Stronger storms
will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic
winds. Generally light SW winds during the day, min RHs ranging
between 25-45%, and good overnight recoveries.

Wednesday through Friday...Afternoon storm chances persist, but
coverage becomes more isolated and confined to the higher terrain by
Friday. West to southwest winds each day outside of storms at 5-10
mph, increasing Thursday and Friday to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-35
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff