894
FXUS65 KFGZ 240400
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
900 PM MST Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue
through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over
eastern Arizona towards the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Current radar shows a pair of storms producing heavy
rainfall in southern Yavapai County near Congress. Elsewhere,
convective activity is diminishing. High resolution model guidance
suggests storm activity will continue to decline this evening,
with quiet conditions overnight.

For tomorrow, deep monsoon moisture will remain in place, with
precipitable water generally ranging from 0.8 to 1.6 inches. High
resolution model guidance shows slightly higher instability as
compared to today, with mean CAPE values ranging from around 300
J/kg near the Four Corners to around 1000 J/kg in Yavapai County
south of the Mogollon Rim. Similar to today, storms will be slow
moving as the 0-6 km wind is forecast to be 5 knots or less at
most places. All of this to say, the primary hazard on Monday will
continue to be flash flooding caused by heavy rainfall from slow
moving storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /453 PM MST/...It`s been a sluggish start to
showers and storms popping up this afternoon, but we are
starting to see isolated activity. Recent runs of the U of A WRF
show more storm development after 2 PM and continuing into the
evening hours, which is consistent with a few other Hi-Res models.
There also still seems to be a focus over Coconino County,
especially along the Kaibab Plateau. The first lightning strikes
of the day were near Jacob Lake, but it`s truly a shot in the dark
to try and pin-point exactly where we are going to see storm
coverage for the rest of the afternoon/evening.

This monsoon pattern will continue through much of the week, with
a more typical-monsoon flow (high pressure over the Four Corners)
shaping up by mid- week. As a result, expect scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday.

As we move towards the end of the week/weekend, the previously
mentioned monsoon pattern will gradually weaken to a less
pronounced west/southwest flow due to a passing trough. This will
limit showers/thunderstorms to eastern Arizona, and a few areas
across the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 24/00Z through Tuesday 25/00Z...VFR conditions
will mostly prevail, outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier
SHRA/TSRA. Chances for showers/storms will be greatest until
around 06Z with clearing expected overnight...and then again 18Z
to 00Z Monday. Gusty/erratic winds will be likely near storms,
but otherwise, look for S-SW winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/00Z through Thursday 27/00Z...SHRA/TSRA
chances will continue each afternoon/evening through the outlook
period. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any given
storm. Outside of outflow winds, expect W-SW winds 5-15 kts.
Overnight winds will become light and variable. VFR conditions
will prevail, minus brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Tuesday...Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours tonight, and
are expected to return both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Heavy
rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible
with any storm. Outside of storm driven winds, look for southwest
winds 5-15 mph. Minimum RH values ranging between 25-45% daily.

Wednesday through Friday...Look for daily chances for
showers/thunderstorms, but chances will gradually decrease each
afternoon. Outside of gusty outflow winds, expect west-southwest
winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH values generally between 25-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/Konieczny
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff