305
FXUS65 KFGZ 172322
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
422 PM MST Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures and breezy conditions
continue through the rest of this week. Mostly dry conditions are
expected, with only a slight chance of showers late Friday over
far northern Arizona. A benign weather pattern develops for next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An unsettled, but mostly dry weather pattern looks
to persist through this weekend with breezy afternoon winds and
cool, below average temperatures each day. Southwest winds remain
gusty this afternoon with the strongest winds (30-40 mph) being
felt across the Little Colorado River Valley and portions of the
Navajo Nation. The rain showers from earlier this morning across
eastern Arizona have pushed out of the region with cloud cover
beginning to clear.

Fall is in the air this afternoon with mostly clear skies and
temperatures in the 60s/70s. Taking a look at current water vapor
imagery, drier air continues to infiltrate from the west as a low
pressure trough lifts towards the northeast. Given the drier air,
clear skies, and calmer southeasterly winds expected overnight,
plan on the coldest temperatures since spring with 30s/low 40s in
the High Country and mid to upper 40s/low 50s for the lower
elevations. Widespread freezes are not forecast at this time,
besides for a few of our typically colder spots in northern
Arizona, including Bellemont, Tusayan, North Rim, and Window Rock.
Similar conditions are anticipated on Wednesday with slightly
warmer temperatures and persistent breezy southwest winds, 15-30
mph.

Confidence continues to increase in another low pressure system
tracking along the West Coast and making its way inland across the
Southwest for Thursday and into early Saturday. However with this
trough, winds do not look as strong and conditions will remain
mostly dry. Thursday and Friday will feature south to southwest
winds 15-30 mph each afternoon coupled with cool, below average
temperatures during the day and at night. As the area of low
pressure begins to trek across the Southwest Friday into Saturday,
slight chances for showers (15-30%) are forecast focused on
northwest Coconino County...where the center of the low looks to
pass allowing for some upslope flow to occur underneath the cold
pool. Everywhere else can expect dry conditions to remain with
minimal cloud cover.

Temperatures begin a warming trend on Sunday, continuing into
next week as heights increase from west to east. Ensemble guidance
for next week suggests mostly weak flow over Arizona with seasonal
temperatures and typical afternoon breezes. Confidence is high in
regards to conditions remaining dry during this time with no
significant precipitation events on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 18/00Z through Thursday 19/00Z...VFR
conditions will persist through the TAF period. Breezy SW winds
gusting 20-30 kts will continue through 03Z, before mostly light
and variable winds return overnight. Expect S-SW winds 10-20 kts
after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 19/00Z through Saturday 21/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the outlook period. Expect overnight winds
to be light and variable, with afternoon winds out of the S-SW
15-25 kts gusting near 30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Thursday...Dry and breezy weather
with below average temperatures will continue through Thursday.
Daytime winds will be from the southwest around 15-20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph. Light winds will develop overnight.

Friday through Sunday...Remaining cool, breezy and mostly dry.
Another low pressure system could bring a few showers to far
northern Arizona late Friday through early Saturday. Look for
southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Friday, becoming
lighter northerly winds over the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff