550
FXUS65 KFGZ 240921
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
221 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions
will continue through the week. Slightly cooler temperatures and
breezy winds arrive towards the end of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weather story of the week will be the dominant
high pressure that builds across the desert southwest. This will
bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the region. Daytime
highs will be around 5-15 degrees above normal through the weekend,
though some slight cooling is expected by the weekend. Winds will
generally be light through the period with easterly winds today
before a shift to the south to southwest on Wednesday. Models are
trying to show a shortwave trough moving into California over the
weekend but the high might be just a bit too strong to allow for it
to have much influence across our forecast area. If anything, we may
see the winds increase some late in the weekend as there is little
to no moisture available for us to tap into which will keep us dry.

Item of note: the warm temperatures are more reminiscent of July
temperatures over what we expect for late September. As a result, we
may near or even break some of the daily maximum temperature records
so definitely something to keep an eye on, especially as we head
into the later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 24/06Z through Wednesday 25/06Z...VFR
conditions with mostly clear skies. Light and variable wind under
10 kts most areas, except gustier northeast winds 15-25 kts at
KSEZ overnight through around 15Z Tuesday. East to northeast winds
5-15 kts developing again after 18Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 25/06Z through Friday 27/06Z...VFR conditions
persist with little to no cloud cover. Afternoon south wind 10-15
kts Wednesday, becoming variable 5-10 kts Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Above normal temperatures and
dry conditions will continue each day. Minimum RH values will range
between 10-25%. Expect winds varying in direction 5-15 mph this
afternoon, becoming more southerly on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Afternoon highs 5-15 degrees above
normal will continue through the weekend. Winds will generally be
light and variable each day, along with minimum RH values between 10-
25%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff