Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
648 FXUS65 KFGZ 170424 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 924 PM MST Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest winds to create critical fire weather conditions both today and Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal today through Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of thunderstorms arrives by next weekend. && .UPDATE...Clear skies across northern Arizona with just a few higher clouds trying to skirting across the Utah-Arizona state line. Winds have dropped off this evening leaving us with a good night for radiational cooling. Tomorrow yields another dry and windy day with a Wind Advisory and a Red Flag Warning up for much of northern Arizona. The only positive item to note is that temperatures will be slightly cooler due influence from a trough across the northwestern states. Forecast is in good shape and only minor edits were made this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /422 PM MST/...A deepening trough over the northwestern United States will affect our area through at least Tuesday. The primary impacts will be dry and windy conditions, as well as with somewhat cooler temperatures. The windiest days will be ahead of the trough axis, today and especially Monday. Winds decrease after that, but will stay breezy through at least Thursday, as remnants of the trough linger over the region. Current RFW products look fine, some zones are marginal at best, we will not make changes and a Wind Advisory was added for Monday. The bottom line is that it has not rained in weeks and any increase in wind speeds combined with our dry boundary layer will lead to dangerous FWX conditions. There is now a distinct possibility that sustained southerly or southwesterly flow, along with a building ridge late this week, will push the Monsoon boundary layer into Arizona by next weekend, maybe even by Friday. This could lead to an outbreak of dry, high-based thunderstorms and hot temperatures, not a good recipe, stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Monday 17/00Z through Tuesday 18/00Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Gusty southwest winds will continue through ~04Z, with winds generally 10 kts or less afterwards. By 15Z, winds will quickly increase out of the S-SW. Look for sustained winds 15-25 kts and wind gusts 30-40 kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/00Z through Thursday 20/00Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period under mostly sunny skies. Gusty S-SW winds will remain through 06Z Tuesday followed by light/variable overnight winds. Look for SW winds 5-15 kts both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Localized gusts near 25 kts possible each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Widespread critical fire weather conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim are expected on Monday afternoon, due to single digit humidity/gusty southwest winds, 30 to 45 mph. Winds weaken on Tuesday, however, conditions remain dry. Wednesday through Friday...Breezy southwest winds, 15 to 25 mph on Wednesday, with 10 to 15% humidity. Moisture increases gradually on Thursday and Friday, with chances for dry thunderstorms returning to the forecast. Southwest winds remain breezy each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140. Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ004-006-007-009>016-039-040. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/Peterson AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff