Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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163 FXUS65 KFGZ 241603 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 905 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over eastern Arizona towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Taking a look around the CWA, moisture has increased yet again today, as compared to yesterday. Surface dew points are largely in the 50s, to near 60 and PW values range from 0.80" over the northeastern zones, to near 1.5" in our southern zones. The higher PW values and more robust CAPE are once again located in Yavapai County and southern Coconino County. The 12Z sounding from KFGZ indicates an earlier convective start is possible today, especially in areas where debris cloud has already dissipated. We expect an active day today, especially due to storms forming and propagating W/SW from the San Francisco Peaks or just west of the San Francisco Peaks, as well as the Bradshaw and northwestern Black Mountains. Primary threats will be heavy rain and small hail, lack of shear and notable storm motion should limit larger hail potential. Similar conditions persist Tuesday and even into Wednesday. before the mid-levels dry toward the end of the week. This will likely limit storms to our eastern zones Thursday and Friday, but moisture will creep back westward as early as the weekend, due to the ridge reestablishing position heading into next week. Current temperature forecasts, especially through Tuesday, seem very high compared to guidance. Will be working on this with an early daily package/update. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period, excluding brief periods this afternoon and evening where TS and SHRA will result in reduced visibilities and lowered ceilings. Gusty, erratic winds are expected near thunderstorms. Outside of storms, winds will be generally SW 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/12Z through Thursday 27/12Z...Daily afternoon/evening TS and SHRA chances will persist, resulting in brief, sporadic chances for sub VFR conditions. W-SW winds during the day will persist, outside of thunderstorm outflows. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once again expected Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon winds will mainly be driven by outflows. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 25 to 45 percent, with good overnight recoveries. Wednesday through Friday...Afternoon storm chances persist, but coverage becomes more isolated and moves into the eastern zones by Thursday and Friday. Light southwest winds Wednesday (outside of storms), increasing Thursday and Friday to 10 to 15 mph with gusts from 20 to 30 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...RKR/Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff