Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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596 FXUS65 KFGZ 210338 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 838 PM MST Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across Arizona will bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. Warmer and drier weather is expected to return for much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION...A compact upper low now crossing the Lower Colorado River will eject ENE to the Four Corners by this time on Saturday. Expect steepening lapse rates and increasing moisture overnight as the low moves through. This will be enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well as some areas of stratiform precipitation in the dynamic eastern portion of the low. The cold core of low will also drop snow levels to 10k feet or so, any precipitation in the Flagstaff area will fall as snow over the San Francisco Peaks. Activity with this system is most likely near, north and northwest of the core of the low. During the day Saturday, drier and more subsident air will slowly trickle in from the northwest, with activity ending by evening. Dry and warming after that, with light winds and above normal temperatures for much of next week. Current PoP schemes look fine and no short term updates are needed. && .AVIATION...Saturday 21/00Z through Sunday 22/00Z...VFR conditions will prevail for most areas through 06Z, with isolated light showers developing west of a KPRC-KGCN line. Expect south to southwest winds at 10-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts through 02Z then diminishing. After 06Z, scattered -SHRA/-TSRA and MVFR conditions west of a KPRC-KPGA line with chances gradually increasing and spreading eastward through 18Z, with the best chance of showers along/north of I-40 during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Sunday 22/00Z through Tuesday 24/00Z...Shower activity will wind down early Saturday evening in far northeast Arizona. VFR conditions return later Saturday night through Monday. West-northwest winds at 10-20 kts on Saturday, then variable winds mostly 10 kts or less for Sunday and Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...An area of low pressure will deliver chances for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. Dry and warmer weather will move in on Sunday. Look for west-northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on Saturday followed by northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday. Light and variable winds under 10 mph are forecast for Monday with northerly winds at 10-20 mph expected to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum/JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff