Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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569 FXUS65 KFGZ 170444 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 PM MST Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty southwest winds continue overnight and into Tuesday, although not as strong as what was seen Monday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue mainly over Navajo and Apache counties through Tuesday morning. Then, mostly dry, cool, and breezy weather for the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Drier air has recently moved through the Phoenix metro area and across I-17, but the airmass remains fairly moist to the east of that. Winds speeds have decreased, but definitely not decoupled yet. This could cause some problems for our overnight lows, but it is too early to make that call and we won`t make an update. The main trough finally ejects later tonight and into Tuesday morning. There could be some convective enhancement after Midnight MST and through mid-morning Tuesday over the eastern zones, as the trough axis comes through. This is covered in the current PoP schemes. We still expect breezy southwest winds tomorrow. But the axis of stronger winds slides east and mixing will not be as intense as the colder and dry air moves in. The current plan is to not have another NPW, but it could get close in a few locations. All in all, the forecast is in food shape. Big story is a real taste of fall this week, including some freezing temperatures in the high country, summer is fading. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 17/06Z through Wednesday 18/06Z...Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are forecast to persist across portions of Navajo and Apache counties through around 15Z. MVFR conditions and hail are possible with any stronger storms that develop. In addition, there is a 30%-50% chance that some localized MVFR cigs will develop over high terrain areas including KGCN/KFLG between 06Z and 15Z. Breezy overnight winds will increase in speed after 15Z, becoming southwest 15-25 kts gusting 25-35 kts through 02Z Wednesday. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 18/06Z through Friday 20/06Z...VFR conditions expected. On Wednesday and Thursday, southwest winds at 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts. A few showers are possible in northwest Arizona late Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday morning, mainly east of a Payson to Kayenta line. Drier weather will arrive Tuesday afternoon. South to southwest winds at 10-20 mph will persist tonight through Tuesday, with gusts of 25-35 mph during the afternoon. Southwest gusts to 20-30 mph for Wednesday afternoon. Thursday through Saturday...Remaining cool, breezy and mostly dry. Another low pressure system could bring a few showers to northwest Arizona late Thursday or Friday. Look for southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph Thursday and Friday, becoming light northerly by Saturday for most areas. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff