066
FXUS65 KFGZ 281720
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A lull in shower and thunderstorm development will
arrive today and Saturday, before moisture returns and brings an
active pattern back to the area by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...No forecast updates are needed this morning. The FGZ
sounding early this morning shows moisture has decreased in the
mid/upper levels. There still remains enough moisture to spark
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and this is
consistent with the CAM guidance this morning. Activity should
remain generally from around Sedona and Flagstaff north and
eastward. Much less of a flood threat is expected today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /434 AM MST/...Drier and more stable air will
continue to stream into Arizona from the west today and into the
weekend. This is due to a persistent trough over the Pacific
Northwest, which has turned mid-level flow back to westerly. This
and increased boundary layer winds are steadily mixing out our
boundary layer moisture.

Small variations in the northern stream trough will allow flow to
turn more southerly at times over the next several days. These
variations will keep the moisture pool fairly close by and will not
completely scour us out. Because of this, we are keeping low-grade
PoPs in today and Saturday, before ramping back up again by Sunday.

By Sunday or Monday, the northern stream retreats and allows the
ridge to rebuild to our east and flow once again will reverse and
become southeasterly. Moisture returns enough to ramp back into a
low-medium grade Monsoon PoP scheme for most of next week. Will have
to watch the potential at the end of next week for an abnormally
warm and western positioned high pressure cell, this will end
precipitation chances if it evolves as progged.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/18Z through Saturday 29/18Z...Isolated
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon mainly north of a KSEZ - KSOW line. Brief
reductions down to MVFR possible in any stronger storm, along with
outflow wind gusts up to 35 kts. Outside of storms, SW to W winds
10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/18Z through Monday 01/18Z...SHRA/TSRA
confined to the White Mountains Saturday, with moisture and storm
chances increasing and spreading north Sunday and Monday. SW
winds through the weekend 10-20 kts or less, becoming light during
the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Notably drier weather
expected both days with only light, isolated showers or high based
thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward.
Afternoon RHs remain elevated today, then some locations at lower
elevations will fall into the teens Saturday. Overnight
recoveries remain good. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph both
days.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to
increase again from Sunday into next week. Southwest winds 10-15 mph
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/Peterson
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff