263
FXUS63 KFSD 072329
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
629 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through
  the evening, a few of which could become strong to severe
  along the Missouri River.

- Slightly cooler temperatures with relatively light winds for
  the upcoming weekend.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms heading into the new
  week, with temperatures forecast to rise near/above seasonal
  norms as upper level ridging builds across the western CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT: Dreary conditions continue across the
region, with latest observations showing cloudy skies, scattered
showers, and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Expect much of the
same through the evening, with a few isolated thunderstorms capable
of becoming strong to severe west of the James River and along/south
of the MO River. SPC`s latest Day 1 Outlook did expand the Marginal
(Level 1 of 5) Risk a touch further north and also introduced a
small Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across portions of Gregory/Charles
Mix counties. In regard to dynamics, still have abundant shear in
place, with 0-6 km values exceeding 50kts. That being said,
instability still remains rather meager across our area, as the
better buoyancy (1000+ J/kg) sits further south. Thus, believe the
primary hazards will be quarter size hail and damaging gusts up to
60 MPH with any storm that does become severe. As always, we
encourage you to have a way to receive warnings.

Additional showers/storms will be possible in areas along and east
of I-29 overnight as another upper level wave drifts across the
region. Do think it`s worth noting, however, that the severe threat
will have diminished across our area by then. Given the lack of
significant moisture, expect overall accumulations to remain less
than a quarter of an inch. Lows during this time will also be fairly
mild, as cloud cover keeps temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A narrow corridor of showers will be
possible along/south of I-90 near daybreak Saturday, which should
diminish by early afternoon. Sfc high pressure then slides overhead,
allowing dry conditions to prevail for the remainder of the weekend.
Temperatures look to be a touch cooler, with afternoon highs largely
in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies. North/northwest
winds will also remain fairly light, so get outside and enjoy the
weather if you can!

MONDAY AND BEYOND: Brief upper level ridging builds across the
region heading into the new week, keeping conditions dry for most of
Monday. While model consistency has been rather poor the last few
days, have started to see some agreement with the latest runs in
regards to the upper level pattern. Latest consensus now has a
pronounced trough and sfc cold front pushing eastward across the
Northern Plains Monday evening, causing showers/storms to return to
the forecast again. Precipitation looks to persist through much of
Tuesday, with a lull in activity occurring Tuesday evening as upper
level flow turns quasi-zonal.

A series of shortwaves then takes aim at the region for the
remainder of the week, resulting in periodic chances for
showers/storms. In regard to temperatures, look for highs to rise
from the lower 70s Monday into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday.
Lows will generally remain in the 50s to 60s. Otherwise, expect
broad upper level ridging to develop over the western CONUS late
next week, resulting in near/above normal temperatures. As alluded
to in the previous discussion, the NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate
700/850 mb temperatures near the 90th percentile with respect to
climatology during this time. Certainly something to keep an eye on
in the coming day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Scattered showers begin the TAF period this evening along and south
of I-90. These showers will continue to push off to the southeast
this evening. A stray rumble of thunder is possible but confidence
is not high enough to include mention of thunder in a TAF.
Southeasterly winds will turn northerly during the overnight hours
as a weak boundary slides through the area. A second round of
showers is expected during the overnight hours as this boundary
slides through. The showers should stay along and northeast of a
Wessington Springs, SD to Sioux Falls, SD to Spencer, IA line. MVFR
ceilings may move into the area along with the showers. However,
confidence is only high enough to include in KSUX`s TAF at this
time. Trends will be monitored. A third round of light showers is
possible during the daylight hours along and south of I-90. However,
confidence is too low to include this round of showers in a TAF at
this time. Trends will again be monitored. Otherwise, light
northerly winds will finish out the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...Meyers